ExtraTime Radio Podcast
LISTEN: It's Wednesday night and there are eight games on MLS LIVE ... that's what the ExtraTime boys call heaven. Andrew, David and Matt banter through a wild slate of games, then talk 24 Under 24 Top 10 before US U-20 coach and US youth technical director Tab Ramos joins to add his expertise (38:07). Subscribe now and "Like" our Facebook page so you never miss a show! Download this episode!
I come not to praise the 24 Under 24 list, but to bury it. It is a frustrating and uneven list with an obvious winner – Miguel Almiron had to be No. 1, was No. 1, and nobody should have a single complaint about that – and then about 50 more guys who had a claim to be somewhere in the top 24. A few guys who made that final 24 probably shouldn't have, and a few who didn't make the final 24 definitely should have, and some guys should've been higher than they were ranked and a bunch should've been lower.
Let's get into that in a second. First, please let's all consider this context: MLS is a league in which the guy who won the Bronze Ball at the U-20 World Cup – meaning he was the third best player at that tournament – and who was signed by Manchester City as an 18-year-old, and who went to Buenos Aires earlier this month and went blow-for-blow against Argentina in a World Cup qualifying draw... MLS is a league where that guy, Yangel Herrera, did not make the top five of this list.
He's 19, he starts for the second-best team in the league, he's a full international, his on/off splits for NYCFC are eye-popping, and he's arguably() not a top 5 under 24 in this league.
() I had him No. 2.
So the point is that there's a lot of talent to choose from, much more now than in years past. Part of that is because the Homegrown program is cranking out quality pros at a younger age, and part of it is because Targeted Allocation Money has become such a factor in signing quality pros from, especially, the Americas, and part of it is that teams like Atlanta United have gone all-in on getting young Designated Players.
Here are the numbers of players with college experience on the annual list by year:
- 2010: 11
- 2011: 9
- 2012: 13
- 2013: 10
- 2014: 11
- 2015: 8
- 2016: 12
- 2017: 4
This doesn't mean that college players are suddenly bad. It just means that when they sign as a Homegrown or through the draft, they're fighting for playing time against peers who've been pros for, in some cases, more than half a decade. Thus it's hard for guys like Julian Gressel, Abu Danladi and Jack Elliott to find daylight even though all three are having excellent debut professional seasons.
And that's how your favorite player got ignored or under-ranked or outright disrespected. You're #MadOnline right now and I appreciate that, because I'm a little... well, "perplexed" is a better word than "mad", so I'm a little perplexed at some of the voting as well. I had both Brandon Vincent (who's been the best pure left back in the league, don't @ me Atlanta or Seattle fans) and Marky Delgado in my top 10, and neither made the final list. I had a bunch of other guys in the low teens and 20s who didn't even come close.
After nearly a decade of doing this, I think I have a pretty good grasp of what's going on – why the voting is as it is – and the factors at play:
• The biggest tension is "potential vs. production." The annual 24 Under 24s used to be littered with guys who were potentially very good but hadn't yet shown as much in terms of raw, on-field productivity. More often than not these were rookies out of college, though more and more often over the last few years it's been academy teenagers.
This year's group has skewed heavily toward the "production" end of the spectrum, with the exception of three players: Alphonso Davies, Erik Palmer-Brown and Ballou Jean-Yves Tabla.
None is a full-time starter, but Davies was arguably the best midfielder at the Gold Cup this summer as a 16-year-old, which explains why he's No. 4. Palmer-Brown was the captain and best player on the US U-20s in both qualifying and at the World Cup, and won the Golden Ball for the CONCACAF Championship. He'll be signing with Manchester City (and then loaned out to a Dutch team) in January. And Tabla's an electric, 18-year-old talent who's also likely to sign overseas this winter.
How do you judge guys like this against full-time starters like... well, like pretty much everybody else on the list?
• History of productivity matters.Jordan Morris has had a disappointing second season for the Sounders, but what he did last year doesn't get wiped away. Same with Kellyn Acosta who, at age 20, started and was an influential central midfielder for a team that won the Supporters' Shield/US Open Cup double. That doesn't get wiped away.
A lot of the complaints I've seen seem to want this to be a list of "who are the 24 Under 24 playing the best right now." It's not that, and it never has been that, and the only way to get that list is to just keep badgering @BenBaer89 until he's willing to give you his own weekly updates.
But keep in mind that would just be Ben's list, not a list of 20ish media-types from all over the continent. And it wouldn't include scout's takes (which is the best part of the whole exercise, and the reason it takes nearly two months to put together).
• National team play matters. I mentioned Davies above. Both Acosta and Morris, meanwhile, have played significant minutes in significant games for the USMNT, and for all the flak the Morris selection is getting, riddle me this: How many other players scored the tournament-winning goal in this summer's Gold Cup?
Should the voters just discount that?
• Injuries matter. Guys who miss half the season are going to drop because – to borrow a line from Alexi Lalas – "Staying healthy is a skill."
The voters don't just ignore that, nor should they.
• How a team is doing in the moment matters a lot. When voting took place RSL were at or near the bottom of the table, and Albert Rusnak still landed in the top 15 which I'm sure has pleased RSL fans qui–
Oh. Guess not.
But understand that for the most part, most analysts aren't going to be able to watch every single game, and highlight packs can only show so much, and the voting panel always (justifiably IMO) seems to think more highly of players who play for winning teams. In 2017, 18 of the 24 guys on the list are above the playoff line right now, and a few of the ones that aren't – Cyle Larin, Alberth Elis, Diego Fagundez – were when the vote was taken.
• Big goals in big games matter. Morris and Mauro Manotas are similar players in style, current quality and long-term upside. You remember goals Morris has scored. Can you recall a single Manotas goal? My guess is most of the panel can't, either.
So that's it – that's what my perception is regarding what the panel is actually voting on, and what it shows about the players listed. It's not perfect, but it remains, to me, an interesting and fun exercise. Even when well-intentioned lunatics show up in my Twitter mentions for days at a time.
