First things first: This is baller from Christian Pulisic:
Christian Pulisic is feeling pretty confident going into Azteca. #USMNTpic.twitter.com/zbzJatgl2o
— FOX Soccer (@FOXSoccer) June 9, 2017
"We're gonna come out with a win there, too," is something you probably have to be very young and insanely good to say about a trip to the Azteca. Pulisic checks both boxes so I'm gonna let the young man live his life regarding this particular prediction ahead of Sunday night's qualifier in Mexico (8:30 pm ET; FS1 | Univision | UDN). Audentes Fortuna iuvat.
But yeah, the US are prohibitive underdogs on this visit. Mexico are atop the Hexagonal with 13 points through five games, and have conceded just once thus far – Bobby Wood's semi-breakaway after a lovely Jozy Altidore turn-and-feed back in October, in the first game of the Hexagonal. Since then it's 401 minutes and counting of shutout soccer.
So the defense has been airtight. The attack has been slightly wobbly though, save for set pieces. El Tri have often lacked ideas when trying to build through possession, but every time they've had a chance at a restart they've been dangerous (including the game-winner in that 2-1 Mexican victory in Ohio).
Let's do some bullet points:
• Bruce Arena and Juan Carlos Osorio will both rotate the hell out of their squads. JCO does so even in the best of times, and having to play this game on 72 hours of rest hardly qualifies as "the best of times."
They smashed Honduras with a B+ team on Thursday night, playing a pretty standard 4-3-3, and the biggest takeaway from that game is that neither Javier "Chicharito" Hernandez nor Marco Fabian saw the field. Osorio is hard to predict, but I'll still wager my house that Chicharito will start as a lone, channel-running center forward and Fabian will start underneath him as a pure, attacking No. 10.
A 4-2-3-1 is likely, with two advanced, attacking wingers (Hirving Lozano, who got 27 minutes and a goal against Honduras, and who ripped FC Dallas apart in the CCL semifinals, is a good bet to start). The US are going to be scrambling.
• Arena's squad will, as mentioned, look very different from the group that handled Trinidad & Tobago on Thursday, and as with Mexico it's the short turnaround + high altitude combo that'll necessitate major squad rotation. My best guess at an XI:
Four new starters, including three guys (DaMarcus Beasley, Omar Gonzalez, Paul Arriola) who've played at the Azteca plenty of times, and Kellyn Acosta, who was lights out against Pachuca in that CCL series.
There's also a formation shift in store. The US played a 4-2-3-1 in the last 30 minutes against T&T, and Acosta's presence in central midfield should add support for Michael Bradley. Bradley has done well playing as a solo d-mid at home against Honduras and the Soca Warriors, but doing so on the road against Mexico is a different proposition.
This does leave some fan favorites on the bench, but guys who emptied their tanks in Denver – Jorge Villafaña, Altidore and Darlington Nagbe in particular – probably won't have that much to offer here. There is, fortunately, real depth behind them.
And even with the the above lineup you could talk me into a few more changes. To be entirely honest, Pulisic is the only field player from the win over T&T who absolutely must start in this game. I'd be nervous about but accepting of Matt Hedges and Graham Zusi on the backline for Geoff Cameron and DeAndre Yedlin, and Dax McCarty at d-mid for Bradley.
Fatigue is, in each case, the reason why.
• Watch how high the US fullbacks are pushing early in this one. If they're getting way up the field, that means Arena is asking them to empty their tanks and is planning to make second-half subs for them. I could easily see Yedlin, for example, spending himself entirely in the first 45 and then being taken off in a straight swap for Zusi, or off for a center back as part of a switch to a 3-5-2 (Gonzalez/Cameron/Hedges on the backline, with Arriola at right wingback and Beasley on the left, combined with a central midfield of Bradley, Acosta and Bedoya would be something close to "air tight" defensively, at least on paper).
• I haven't mentioned Clint Dempsey at all. He won't start, but he'll make an appearance in the second half.
• Pulisic is a must-start for two reasons: He is the best US player, and there are questions about Mexico's defensive midfield situation. Hector Herrera put in a great shift against los Catrachos, but – again – 72 hours is a quick turnaround. Forcing him to track Pulisic between the lines is the ideal way to burn up any reserve energy he has, and with Wood making his usual direct runs from the center forward spot, there will be plenty of space in between those lines.
Look for Bradley (or McCarty) and Acosta to try to stay deep, then play either direct to Pulisic's feet or into space for Wood:
Yeah, the US will need some of that. Expect this game to be about releasing Wood and Pulisic into space, with occasional help from Arriola and maaaaaybe Bedoya (who I think will play an almost purely defensive/opportunistic role).
The US have gotten points in the Azteca before by 1) using Mexico's need to dominate possession against them, and 2) just grinding the game out. New coaches, mostly new players, and unique circumstances aside, Sunday night's blueprint will be the exact same thing.
