It's my first chance to sit down and bang out a TwitBag column in a couple of months. As always these are some of the best questions I get on twitter, and this is my opportunity to answer them with more than
140
280 characters.
Into the woods we go...
Sigh. Ok we'll start with some pain, but first let's specify: It's not "one d-mid" that was the issue vs. Trinidad & Tobago, it was "one central mid of any sort." This was the gambit that paid off spectacularly against Panama (and back in March against Honduras), but failed just as spectacularly on the last day of the Hexagonal.
There are three rules:
- Never start a land war in Asia
- Never go in against a Sicilian when death is on the line
- Never play an open game in a road World Cup qualifier
In terms of overall, strategic decision-making, I could argue that Jurgen Klinsmann's decision not to bring a back-up for Jozy Altidore in 2014, and the decision to cut Landon Donovan outright were worse. In terms of tactical, on-the-day decision-making... I think Arena's decision to go 1-v-4 in central midfield was probably the worst choice I've seen a USMNT coach make since Steve Sampson trotted out a "surprise!" 3-6-1 with no defensive midfielders at the 1998 World Cup.
Bad coaching – at the start of the Hex and at the end of the Hex – were the largest proximal causes of the US failure. But let's not let the players off, because they surely had enough talent to beat a T&T "B" team no matter the formation that they came out in, and no matter who was standing on the sidelines.
Keeping the midfield tight and compact should have been Job No. 1 for the US. I wrote as much in my game preview:
Part of the reason for that is Arena's habitually gambled upon leaving central midfield relatively barren in exchange for a more attack-oriented approach. We saw this in its glory on Friday, that 4-0 win over Panama fired by the US overwhelming the opposing defense with five attackers.
We could very well see the same thing at T&T. What I'd prefer, though, is... a 3-5-2/5-3-2.
Drop one of the two forwards – Altidore (who was coming off a hamstring injury and should never have played in T&T after giving arguably the best 90 of his USMNT career four days previous vs. Panama) and Bobby Wood were equally awful – for literally anybody from the large pool of No. 8s available and we'd have won comfortably.
But we didn't. We surrendered the middle of the pitch on the road, we made it easy for a bad team, and now we're not going to the World Cup. I will never get over this.
Not Sam Allardyce or Laurent Blanc, thank god. Those rumors need to be put to the sword.
If I were forced to lay money, I'd go with Tata Martino. He's done very good work on the international stage in the past, both with a world elite team (Argentina) and a team two strata below that (Paraguay), where the US realistically reside. He's got a proven track record of accomplishment in tournaments, his biggest failure as a coach – lack of squad rotation – is much less of an issue in the international game than it is at the club level, and he knows a good chunk of the player pool.
Other names to consider are probably Greg Vanney, Peter Vermes, Jesse Marsch, Oscar Pareja, Patrick Vieira, and Gregg Berhalter from MLS, Roberto Donadoni from Bologna, Frank De Boer, and maaaaaaaybe David Wagner from Huddersfield Town. There will also be a segment of the fanbase that wants Jose Pekerman, though I have never been a fan of his. Tab Ramos has made it clear he'd like to be in the mix as well, but I don't see that happening until after the 2020 Olympics. If he does well there, then yes. If not, then no.
Regardless, this decision shouldn't be made until after the World Cup, when some very good managers will come available. There is no reason to rush into it.
I haven't watched much of the U-19s, so I can't really say what system he runs or what style his team plays. I will say that his pedigree as a player speaks for itself, and that he did the work to get a UEFA Pro license (and presumably a USSF A license as well), so it's not like he's some neophyte who doesn't know how to run a practice.
There are other guys out there with longer coaching resumes, of course, and it's understandable that New England fans would want their own Martino or Remi Garde. But the Revs are who they are as a franchise, so it seems likely they're going to hire a coach who sees the team as a proving ground.
It's a risk, of course. But every coach starts somewhere.
There is not an obvious, jumps-off-the-page-at-you answer. I think Dallas, RSL and RBNY will all be better than last year, but am not willing to bet the house on that. I think D.C. United and Orlando City should improve a lot, but I also thought they should've been better than they were this season. San Jose have a chance to be both fun and good, but could also be a train wreck.
The easy answer would be the Galaxy. They're going to get rid of a bunch of the millstones, they have a couple of great pieces to build around, and they're going to figure out how to add at least one more. And Sigi Schmid has a track record – say what you want about him, but his teams have won much more than they've lost.
Even so, I'm not eager to go out and buy Galaxy stock. My real guess is that the four teams I thought were the best this year (Toronto, NYCFC, Atlanta and Seattle) will be the four best next year.
From the outside looking in, Garde seems like a great hire for the Impact. There's a lot of talent in that academy and both Anthony Jackson-Hamel and Ballou Jean-Yves Tabla started to show as much last season.
If Garde does for Montreal what he did at Lyon, they will start selling along a steady stream of those players, which will increase the team's profile both locally and globally, and will obviously help the bottom line. Part of that will have to go hand-in-hand with MLS adjusting some of the transfer rules, which looks like it's going to happen in the offseason.
But as much success as Garde had at Lyon... his Aston Villa team was catastrophic. So it's not a slam-dunk that he's going to come in and fix everything that's been plaguing this franchise.
The United States and Canada. Too many teams still underrate domestic talent to a criminal degree.
Nobody gave more minutes to North American players this year than TFC, and they're odds-on favorites to become the first team in league history to do the treble. There are more talented domestic players out there who can't break into lineups for whatever reason, but teams just keep on shopping overseas, paying a premium for players who are not appreciably better than what's developed here.
Until that changes MLS will progress only in fits and starts.
This is probably going to be the only chance to see Sargent with the full national team for at least a year, so that's my guess. I don't know if that's the reason or not, but really, who knows anything in this crazy, mixed-up world of ours?
Anyway, Sargent won't be at January camp, as he'll be busy with Werder Bremen. I'll go ahead and bet you a dollar that Ramirez absolutely will be, so you won't have to wait to long to see him in Red, White & Blue.
Miguel Almiron, and I don't think it will be close. I know Atlanta are swearing they're not interested in selling him right now, but that's what clubs usually do right before they sell a guy for a bunch of money.
An autopsy.
Then, once they're done poking at their own cadaver, they have to be realistic about who they can bring back and who they need to sell on. There were some unhappy campers in that locker room, and some guys who have openly talked about wanting to be elsewhere. FCD might have missed the chance to sell them at peak value, which burns, but all of them are guys who attract international interest.
Then they have to get smart about bringing in quality squad players, and about playing the kids. Reggie Cannon at right back, please, and let's see some more of Paxton Pomykal. If Kellyn Acosta is moved along (which I think he will be), reuniting Dallas-area native Dillon Powers with Oscar Pareja – who coached him back in 2013 when Powers was the MLS Rookie of the Year and looked like a guy with a USMNT future – as the No. 8 makes a lot of sense.
And finally...
Doing great! Thanks for asking.
To everyone who tweeted me a question, thanks very much. And to those who I didn't get to answer... sorry about that! Hope to get to more of them in the future.
