Armchair Analyst: Matt Doyle

Armchair Analyst: The whole weekend in review from MLS Week 15

Given this was the final full weekend of action before the World Cup break, now's as good a time as any to break from the usual format and go through the full weekend rundown.


Let's try to do this in something approaching chronological order, which means we start on Friday night in Philadelphia:


Philadelphia Union 0, Toronto FC 2


Nobody had a better weekend than Toronto, who 1) got a crucial road win, and 2) saw literally every other team in the Eastern Conference drop points. Before the weekend FiveThirtyEight had the Reds' chances of making the playoffs down at 48%; after the weekend it's 61%. 


Take those number with a grain of salt, of course. FiveThirtyEight's model weights last year's results pretty heavily, and as we've seen all season long, TFC haven't been as good as last year's bunch save for the two legs against Tigres.


But as we saw on Friday night they don't need to be as good as last year's bunch to get results. They just needed a smattering of actual defenders back in the lineup (their fourth, fifth and sixth-choice CBs all played 90 minutes, which is – believe it or not – actually an improvement), they needed to move Michael Bradley back to d-mid, and they needed to actually finish the chances they'd been consistently creating. They did all of the above, got some luck via the Haris Medunjanin and Alejandro Bedoya suspensions, and got a couple of good stops from Alex Bono to preserve the shutout.


Moments like this are why I continue to think TFC will be fine, and why I have less confidence in the four teams directly ahead of them in the standings:

Jonathan Osorio made the winning play. Fafa Picault didn't.


Osorio is also a big reason why I will not be selling any of my TFC stock. It's not just that he's a very good player – it's that he's become a very good player. Guys who play for Greg Vanney improve over the course of a season, and over the course of several seasons, and there straight up aren't a ton of places in MLS you can say that about.


By the way: Philly were organized and good in this game. They've lost two in a row against good teams, but don't expect them to disappear.


NYCFC 1, Atlanta United 1


NYCFC hit the post three times and turned Brad Guzan into a mountain. They were relentless, cutting, and fractionally less than clinical. They rocked the Five Stripes back on their heels in a way that you don't often see from this Atlanta team, which so often dominates games with their ability to play faster into and through transition moments.


It really was a wonderful game for a neutral to watch, and a big part of that was down to the coaching match-up. Tata Martino's resume speaks for itself, and Patrick Vieira's is starting to as well. Plus it seems like he's about to add a new chapter:

Vieira has built a winner in the Bronx, and installed an ethos as to how they play and who they play. This team – like Atlanta – emphasizes, young, skilled, fast, attacking soccer. They are smart and ruthless, and under Vieira became a team that wanted to (and often did) use the ball to pull opposing defenses apart.


Sometimes it came back to bite him. Sometimes he should've been a bit more flexible, both in terms of tactical choices and personnel choices. But in a league where teams and styles are often pretty cookie-cutter, NYCFC under Vieira have stood out. They have been great to watch, they've won a ton of games, and if he's indeed leaving, I'll miss having him in the league.


And that's his legacy right there: He built a fun team with a meaningful identity. Whoever comes in to do the job next has a lot to live up to, but also has a very clear blueprint on how to do so. Chances are Vieira will be leaving this team in much better shape than he found it in.


Update: He's gone.

Columbus Crew SC 1, RBNY 1


Two of the other coaches in the league who've done work similar – better, in many ways – to Vieira squared off in Columbus. Gregg Berhalter gave a great, and maybe slightly passive-aggressive quote before the game:


“It hasn’t changed,” Berhalter said on Thursday. “Our aim is to disorganize the opponent through ball possession to create goal-scoring opportunities, and it will always be that.”


He then drew the distinction between his club and Marsch's:


“They’re fantastic at what they do. You talk about not valuing the ball, the ball not being important – they want to create goal-scoring opportunities without the ball. There’s the big difference right there: we want to create them with the ball, they want to create them without the ball.”


Whether you accept that framing of how the two clubs play or not, it made for a fascinating tactical match-up. Columbus used the ball to dominate the first half, and outshot the Red Bulls 15-2. Marsch made a formational switch at halftime, got pressure higher up the field – which eliminated Artur's ability to push forward and limited Rico Clark's ability to distribute the ball effectively – and outshot Columbus 9-3.


Both teams won a half, and 1-1 was probably a fair result.


Vancouver Whitecaps 5, Orlando City 2


Alphonso Davies, who is still just 17 years old, had a goal and three assists. The first of those assists is our Pass of the Week:

As Calen pointed out in the video above: This is the next step for Davies, who was settling for hopeful crosses earlier in the season. When he gets a chance now, he's driving defenders into the box while on the ball, then putting it on a plate for his teammates. Davies is third in the league with seven assists, he turns 18 just before the winter transfer window opens, and some very big European teams are watching.


The 'Caps have discovered themselves over the past six weeks. They've cut down on both crosses and long balls, and are instead embracing a full, four-man counter. It's Davies, Yordy Reyna, Cristian Techera and Kei Kamara all running right up the gut. They've scored 2 or more goals in a club-record-tying six straight games (and to be fair they've needed to because their defense keeps being something less than impressive).


Orlando City are heading in the opposite direction, and anybody who's been watching both teams saw this result coming. The Purple Lions have been gappy and slow in transition all season long no matter who's on the field, and there's little reason to believe that's going to change at this point. They just have to get healthy and hope they can start outscoring teams.


FC Dallas 2, Montreal Impact 0


Dallas have now won four straight in the league and five straight across all competitions, including three wins in the past week. They're unbeaten in eight, and they've lost just two of the 17 competitive games they've played in 2018.


Montreal are the opposite of all that:

Remi Garde has crushed his players just about every week, saying they lack talent. That particular play above comes from a lack of discipline, accountability and structure.


A lot of that is on the player, Jesisson Vargas. A lot of it's on the coach, too.


Chicago Fire 1, New England Revolution 1


The Revs in 2017 were defined by their inability to catch a break. They coughed up soft, late goal, they hit the post a million times, they lost crucial – irreplaceable – players to injury, they were prone to howlers in net.


The Revs in 2018 are spending that karma:

Good teams make their own luck. I'm still not quite there on the Revs, but it's mid-June and they're solidly above the playoff line. Teams in that position tend to stay in that position.


Chicago continue to be amongst the most nondescript teams in the league.


Houston Dynamo 2, Colorado Rapids 0


Houston did what they needed to, beating a death-spiraling Rapids team and ending their own two-game losing streak in the process. There was nothing fancy or at all unexpected about this one, save for Alberth Elis failing to score and thus murdering MLS Fantasy teams all over the continent.


The one tweak was that Anthony Hudson had his Colorado team come out in a 5-4-1 instead of the usual 3-5-2, but that just invited the Dynamo further forward on the ball. I'm not sure there's a light at the end of the tunnel for this iteration of the Rapids, who've now lost eight in a row in regular season play and nine in a row in all competitions – both club records. They've been outscored 21-5 and have been shut out six times in that stretch, and are off to the worst start in club history.


Their only shot on goal in the past 229 minutes of competitive soccer was a hopeless 37-yard free kick from Jack Price midway through the second half:

Armchair Analyst: The whole weekend in review from MLS Week 15 -

This winter's overhaul has not paid dividends.


Seattle Sounders 2, D.C. United 1


I'll maintain my conviction that Seattle are headed for an offseason overhaul of their own, but at least on Saturday they showed life for one of the few times all season long. And it's patently obvious both how and why: Nicolas Lodeiro was back in the lineup.


Lodeiro's best moments for club and country really have come when playing on the wing as a playmaker who drifts from the outside in, but over his two years in Seattle he's spent about 20 percent of his time planted centrally, and a good chunk of that time sitting deeper – nominally as a game-controlling No. 8. When he played that spot last season, the Sounders were really good: 

The sample size is small but encouraging. And it should be lost on no one that one of the first things Lodeiro did in this game was play Nouhou Tolo through on the overlap, which marked just about the first time all season long that either of the Seattle fullbacks had been useful in attack. It didn't amount to anything, but at least the threat was there!


And Seattle made good on that threat throughout, using the ball to play more vertically and get into attack more quickly. Clint Dempsey was higher and tighter to Will Bruin, and Victor Rodriguez (also finally healthy) looked decent on the wing, and Magnus Wolff Eikrem finally got a goal, and given the last four months two goals in one game officially qualifies as an offensive explosion for the Sounders. It was far from a perfect performance – hell, you could only call it "good" when speaking relatively – but it was still a step forward for this group.


I have no idea why Ben Olsen made only one sub, by the way. Lucho Acosta was dragging by the 70th minute and a more engaged midfielder would've been there to give D.C. better defensive balance on Wolff Eikrem's game-winner. Maybe Yamil Asad wouldn't have had to pinch in, and could've been there to prevent Cristian Roldan's cross.


LA Galaxy 3, Real Salt Lake 0


There were three big takeaways from this game.


1. If Justen Glad is going to become an elite defender he's going to have to learn how to use his lower body to muscle opposing forwards off their line, and stop relying purely on his ability to run fast/jump high. Obviously it's the second Zlatan Ibrahimovic goal that's brought this to mind, and just as obviously there aren't a lot of forwards in the world as big/strong/technical as Zlatan.


Even so, throw a hip into him just a little bit before he makes his run.


2. Bradford Jamieson IV made a real difference for the Galaxy when he came on as a playmaker early in the second half. He was clean on the ball – he only misplaced one pass – and dangerous in Zone 14, including two successful dribbles and a lot of good movement away from the ball:

Armchair Analyst: The whole weekend in review from MLS Week 15 -

3. The Galaxy keep beating the teams they should beat (all due respect to RSL, but they're a team that LA should beat at home). They continue to look frail at times, and at other time struggle to advance the ball into dangerous spots, and nobody would look at them and say "Yeah, they're playing really good soccer."


But they got a really good draw last weekend in Portland, and are 3-1-1 in their last five. They will continue to be in the fight for that sixth playoff spot in the West.


Portland Timbers 0, Sporting KC 0


Portland and Sporting will continue to be in the fight – along with Dallas – for the top spot in the West. There was not much to separate these two teams, both of whom were playing without a bunch of starters:

The Timbers are now winless in 18 games without Diego Chara, though they're also now unbeaten in eight (nine in all competitions) and have conceded just six goals in that time. The switch to the 4-3-2-1 was first season-saving, and now is in the realm of season-defining for this group.


San Jose Earthquakes 3, LAFC 4


Chris Wondolowski had a brace. San Jose had a 3-2 lead in the 89th minute. In 90th minute, they had a 3-3 draw. In the 97th minute, they had their fourth straight loss in league play and fifth in all competitions. 

They are like the reverse-Goonies, and no matter what new formation or lineup Mikael Stahre throws at the wall, it doesn't appear to be improving even fractionally.


LAFC aren't improving either but they're mostly holding steady. The hot start is a thing of the past – this is just their second win in their last seven – but Adama Diomande appears to be the goal-scoring No. 9 they needed, their kids are improving (Joao Moutinho had the game-winner), and I'm not expecting their World Cup cadre to be gone all that long.


This is still a team that's only about 65% built, and it feels like they have the most untapped upside of anybody in MLS. They only really showed it for the final 10 minutes against the Quakes, but it turns out sometimes that's all you need.