Here we go into Week 6. We're about three weeks from "You are what your record says you are" territory.
Let's take a look at what's about to unfold:
FRIDAY'S GAME
New England Revolution vs. Montreal Impact
7 pm ET | FULL PREVIEW | TV & streaming info
The Revs are, after four games, above the playoff line. So are the Impact after their four games. Neither is exactly running away with things – New England's goal differential is +1 and Montreal are dead even – but both have been tougher outs than most expected entering the season. Add another data point to the "MLS is unpredictable" compendium.
There are strong similarities and big differences as to how these two teams play. For one, they foul a lot, with the Impact committed 15.5 fouls per game (most in the league) and the Revs 14.8 (second), so expect it to be a bloodbath. For two, neither wants the ball much, as the Revs are down near the bottom of the league in possession (42%) and the Impact aren't much better (46%). My guess is neither Brad Friedel nor Remi Garde even works on "possession" in training, and that all the focus is on "transition."
And largely because of that we get to the third similarity: when they generate chances they're much more likely to come off of a short pass near the 18 than they are off of any kind of knockdown or cross. Each team will use the long-ball, but they do so in order to create a scenario in which they'll win the second ball and then go direct.
The main difference comes from how they each use the dribble. Montreal lead the league with nearly 17 successful dribbles per game, while the Revs are dead last with 7 per game. This is a function of two things. First is that the Impact have Ignacio Piatti and the Revs don't. Second is that Garde has his side play in a low- or mid-block and then break into space – very inviting for quality 1v1 players – while Friedel has his team pressed up in a higher block that's based more around pass-and-move.
Honestly I'm not sure what to think of either of these teams yet. The Revs, as constructed, lack real playmaking and I'm not convinced that their backline is going to hold together over the course of an entire season (think Piatti's going to miss those opportunities Alberth Elis squandered last week?). Montreal seem to have more promise, but even up a man against a bad Sounders team last weekend they weren't convincing.
SATURDAY'S SLATE
Atlanta United vs. LAFC
5 pm ET | FULL PREVIEW | TV & streaming info
Did the Galaxy expose a couple of things about LAFC last weekend? Maybe. If so, the big one was that LAFC's commitment to playing out of the back can leave them open to bad turnovers – as happened on the first Galaxy goal – and another big one was that if you deny their deep distributors, you can do a nice job of removing Carlos Vela and Diego Rossi from the game at least a little bit.
Gotta do that:
The challenge for Atlanta will be "how do we do that with a team missing so many crucial pieces?" They'll be without two backline starters due to injury, and d-mid Jeff Larentowicz left last weekend's game with what looked like a pretty bad ankle injury, and Leandro Gonzalez Pirez is suspended.
So the plan will be to press LAFC high and force those wonderful turnovers, right? Right. But the downside to that is once LAFC play through the press (which they will on occasion) they'll be going against a mostly second-choice collection of players in deep midfield and on the backline.
One of my usual refrains is "You don't win with 11 or even 18 in the MLS regular season; you have to win with 30." Meaning that unless you have extraordinary luck you're going to have to go well into your roster to find answers every now and again if you're going to be a truly elite team in this league.
That's where we are for Atlanta United this week. This game isn't remotely a test of how high their ceiling is, but instead it's a test of how high their floor can be. If they play well they'll have confirmed their bona fides as an apex Supporters' Shield contender.
Philadelphia Union vs. San Jose Earthquakes
7 pm ET | FULL PREVIEW | TV & streaming info
The Union's young defense (youngest in league history, as per Elias) got a lesson last week in Colorado as Dom Badji battered them throughout the whole second half. I don't think there was anything structurally wrong with how Philly played, to be honest. It was just a case of young players struggling on the road.
Philly's structural issues look more like they're coming in attack, where high-priced newcomers David Accam and Borek Dockal have both struggled. Neither have registered a goal nor an assist, and the Union have actually failed to score an even strength goal this season (they destroyed the Revs in Week 1 after going up two men).
It's not panic time yet, especially since the Quakes have been very good about allowing opposing attacking midfielders into very friendly spots. I.e., this:
Look at how easily and quickly SKC were able to get on the ball between the lines of San Jose's midfield and defense. That's been a recurring theme through 270 Quakes minutes this year, and if they don't tighten it up then there's a good bet one of Accam or Dockal – or both – get off the schneid this weekend.
FC Dallas vs. Colorado Rapids
8 pm ET | FULL PREVIEW | TV & streaming info
This will be FCD's fourth straight home game to start the season. They're unbeaten so far, but 1-0-2 is nothing to write home about, especially since the only W was against a Seattle team that's still hibernating. I'm not going to call this a "must-win" game, but damn is it one they definitely don't want to drop points from.
And they might! Colorado have been ugly (they lead the league in long-balls per game by a mile) but they're opportunistic and well-drilled at the back:
Passing assignments off like that is essential if you're going to play a 5-3-2, which they've done since Day 1.
Expect the Rapids to have to do a lot of that. And then long balls up to Badji in the other direction. Route 1 has been kind enough to them this year, and if Badji continues his hot finishing, they'll continue to collect results.
Chicago Fire vs. Columbus Crew SC
8:30 pm ET | FULL PREVIEW | TV & streaming info
Will Bastian Schweinsteiger play as a sweeper? He did for an hour last weekend, and it was a sword that cut both ways:
Getting an extra man into central midfield at odd times is the point of the sweeper, and it worked well on offense. Having Schweinsteiger sit deep and contest in the box is, however, a recipe for giving up quality chances to opposing wingers and center forwards.
We know that Columbus know a thing or two about generating those exact types of chances. I'm not sure there's a good choice here for Veljko Paunovic, and if it was me I think I'd toss Homegrown rookie CB Grant Lillard (finally healthy) right into the XI, because through three games nothing else has really worked.
Real Salt Lake vs. Vancouver Whitecaps
9:30 pm ET | FULL PREVIEW | TV & streaming info
Through four games the RSL defense has been unsustainably – damn near impossibly – bad. Their expected goals per game differential is -1.30, which is a number even those awful Chivas USA teams couldn't touch back in the day. Save for the first 45 minutes of the year at FC Dallas, they've been getting run no matter who they're facing.
Who's to blame? Let's narrow it down and say everyone. The frontline has been slow to put pressure on the ball, which means that they're easy to play through. The central midfield hasn't been in sync and have allowed simple off-the-ball movement to confound them, which means there are always passing and running lanes. And that's forced the defense to scramble, which nobody's been particularly good at.
Nick Rimando's been fine. He's had one excellent game this season, which just so happened to be RSL's only win (1-0 over the Red Bulls, almost entirely due to a vintage Rimando performance).
This is a systemic thing with RSL, who are playing with no conviction or decisiveness on either side of the ball. Even if their overall game plan is bad, you can still elevate said plan to "well, I guess that's OK enough" if you play with effort and cohesiveness. That's not what RSL have done.
That is what Vancouver have done. They're going to sit deep once again, have maaaaaybe 40% of the ball, and punch holes in the Claret-and-Cobalt defense on the counter. They did it at Houston last month in a 2-1 road win, and they did it at Columbus last week in a 2-1 road win. Those are two of the better teams in the league.
SUNDAY SLATE
Orlando City vs. Portland Timbers
4 pm ET | FULL PREVIEW | TV & streaming info
The big question I have heading into this one is "Will Orlando City stick with the 4-2-3-1 that served them so well in attack last weekend?" I think the switch to that formation could be the turning point in their season:
I'll be shocked if it's anything but that, to be honest.
On the other side of the pitch will be a Portland team that've primarily been a 4-3-2-1 the past few weeks – the old Christmas tree formation that is usually used to shore up defensive shortcomings. It's done so at least a little bit as the Timbers have taken two road points from their last two games (though the bigger reason for recent improvement is probably the return to fitness of Diego Chara).
If I were Portland I'd scroll up to that Schweinsteiger video above and take a look at how he undressed the Timbers on that first Chicago goal, picking the ball up deep and dribbling into the heart of the midfield. Yoshi Yotun is no Schweinsteiger, but he's nonetheless very good and should be playing as a deep-lying midfielder in this one. If and when Sacha Kljestan is able to occupy Chara, watch for Yotun to burst forward into the space that creates and put Portland's backline under pressure.
LA Galaxy vs. Sporting KC
9 pm ET | FULL PREVIEW | TV & streaming info
So obviously we all saw what Zlatan did last weekend, and that rightfully stole the headlines. But let's focus on two big shifts Sigi Schmid made and give him his due.
- After halftime he had Servando Carrasco (and then Carrasco's replacement, Baggio Husidic) press higher upfield to disrupt LAFC's distribution. this was a risk that paid off.
- When he brought Ibrahimovic on, he didn't stay with the 4-2-3-1. He switched to an old-fashioned 4-4-2 and dominated the wings by pushing the fullbacks (but especially Ashley Cole) forward.
These were good, smart adjustments and speak to a level of tactical flexibility that the Galaxy have even when playing without their three DPs. It'll be incumbent upon Schmid to figure it out week-by-week, though so far, so good.
Same probably goes for Sporting KC, who are atop the West on both points and PPG despite a weirdly leaky defense and a weirdly potent attack. How well that attack functions this weekend is an open question given that Felipe Gutierrez left last weekend's win with an undisclosed injury and his replacement, Yohan Croizet, has been… let's call it "underwhelming."
As for the defense, after a miserable first 280 minutes of the season, they've looked something like the SKC of old over the last 170. Get a result here, on the road, and it's probably fair to assume they're back.
One more thing to ponder...
Ever wonder how rolled turf is made?
Happy weekending, everybody.
