Sunday night features one of the most anticipated games of the season so far, as the two best teams (by points per game) in the Eastern Conference – Atlanta United and the New York Red Bulls – play at Mercedes-Benz Stadium (7 pm ET; FS1, TSN2 — Full TV & streaming info).
The Five Stripes and Red Bulls have posted the best attacking numbers in the league so far, with New York's 2.56 goals per game leading MLS and Atlanta's 2.27 gpg currently second in the league. It's not like they're getting lucky or overperforming either, as they have each posted 2.39 expected goals per game (T-1st in MLS) according to data provided by Opta.
We know how the Red Bulls like to score their goals. Press the opposition all over the field, create turnovers and finish at a proficient rate. Their trouncing of New York City FC inside of five minutes was a perfect example of their system working at its peak.
The Red Bulls attempt 36.68 percent of their passes in the final third, the highest percentage in the league. This shows the effectiveness of their high-press system as well as their disinterest in non-influential possession.
They have the lowest pass success rate in the league by a wide margin (69.36 percent) and their possession percentage has dropped from 55.78 percent to 50.10 percent.
One of the hallmarks of Jesse Marsch's teams has also been their ability to score on set pieces, and that trend has continued into 2018 so far. Their five goals off of corners and non-direct free kicks are tied for the most in the league.
We all know what Atlanta's attack is predicated upon: Miguel Almiron's gamebreaking ability and Josef Martinez' lethal finishing. The two have combined for 14 goals and six assists, with Almiron being the MVP front-runner up to this point and Martinez tied atop the Golden Boot race.
Despite being MLS's top possession team in 2017, the Five Stripes were at their most lethal in transition moments. When the ball turned over, they were able to get it to Almiron, Hector Villalba or Yamil Asad and go. This was obviously very effective but they did struggle against teams bunkering against them in the final third.
2018 has been a bit different. First off, we'd be remiss not to mention the fact that six of ATLUTD's 25 goals have come from penalties. No other team has scored more than three penalties. Of course penalties don't come from nothing. Tata Martino's team has put opposing defense under a ton of pressure.
While Almiron creates a ton of opportunities for his team, they don't always evolve into quality chances. His 1.50 chances created from open play per 90 minutes was the 33rd-highest rate in MLS last season. Enter Ezequiel Barco and Darlington Nagbe.
Chances Created from Open Play per 90 minutes
Ranking |
2017 |
2018 |
|---|---|---|
1 |
Yamil Asad (1.59) |
Ezequiel Barco (2.93) |
2 |
Miguel Almiron (1.50) |
Miguel Almiron (1.64) |
3 |
Julian Gressel (1.45) |
Julian Gressel (1.51) |
4 |
Greg Garza (1.34) |
Darlington Nagbe (1.41) |
Barco has been especially adept in helping to breakdown a set defensive block. Most notably, Barco had five chances created when Montreal decided to play ultra-defensively at the Benz last month while a Nagbe pass helped setup his team's first goal.
Having different ways to attack defenses will be crucial as Atlanta chase their first trophy. One of the teams that will be looking to stop that from happening will be the Red Bulls and on Sunday they'll be able to measure eachother up in what should be the opening salvo in a season-long battle.
