Chalk, or chaos?
If you were tied to a wall and forced to boil down the bracketology of the Audi MLS Cup Playoffs to three words or less in order to regain your freedom, that’s probably a reasonable stab at an answer.
The tension between delightfully messy upsets and meritocratic vindication of regular-season performance in many ways has defined the postseason throughout MLS’s existence. The success of underdogs has ebbed and flowed over the decades, and in the limited sample size we have for the current format, higher seeding appears to present a more potent advantage than in the past.
So if we accept that the top three seeds in each conference have a significant advantage, it follows that their prospective paths through the bracket deserve a closer look, via our highly scientific, not-at-all-arbitrary and nevertheless vibe-centered 1-10 rating system. We’ll work upwards, starting out West; all statistics are limited to league play unless otherwise noted.
The Claret-and-Cobalt fly into the playoffs on a six-game unbeaten run that edged them ahead of the similarly surging Seattle Sounders in the standings. Their reward: A Round One duel with an even hotter opponent, Minnesota United (the Loons are 6W-1L-1D since the start of September; RSL are 4W-1L-3D in that timeframe).
Thus you’ll probably see plenty of upset picks for this series. The two sides deadlocked their regular-season meetings, a 1-1 draw at Allianz Field in early April and a scoreless affair in Utah on Oct. 3. That said, Salt Lake were 11-3-3 at home, while MNUFC won fewer than half of their matches at Allianz Field. Of note: the four-day span between games one and two of this series is the tightest turnaround of Round One, which could amplify the physiological impact of altitude, most likely in RSL’s favor.
If Pablo Mastroeni’s side advance, they’ll face the winner of the LA Galaxy-Colorado Rapids series, where the Gs are pronounced favorites, in the one-game setting of a conference semifinal, projected to take place the weekend after the November international window. RSL nearly beat the Galaxy at Dignity Health Sports Park on May 11, taking a 2-0 first-half lead via a Chicho Arango brace before the hosts stormed back, rescuing a 2-2 draw via Miguel Berry’s injury-time equalizer. LA created chances at will, however, to the tune of 2.9 expected goals. And Chicho, we must point out, hasn’t scored a goal since early July.
Should RSL knock off the Gs? Assuming the other side of the bracket goes chalk, it’s a West final vs. LAFC at BMO Stadium. Encouragingly for the Salt Lakers, they took four of six points off the Angeleños this year, including a 1-1 midweek draw in Los Angeles on July 17. Still, it’s a tall order.
PATH DIFFICULTY RATING: 8.5/10 – beating the West’s Nos. 1 and 2, and the three most in-form teams, would be quite an impressive journey to an MLS Cup final.
The run-and-gun Gs will be markedly favored in Round One vs. a badly fading Rapids side who may be without creative linchpin Djordje Mihailovic, and considering they’ve already beaten them twice, scoring six goals in the process, this smells like a sweep.
A chalk semifinal means RSL; we explored that matchup above. The Utahns are unbeaten in their two trips to Southern California in ‘24 but got torn open repeatedly by that high-octane Galaxy front line, and lately haven’t created opportunities with the volume they’d need to win a shootout in Carson. So we fancy LA’s chances here; they're just too explosive.
On paper, that would take us to the tantalizing territory of El Tráfico, playoffs edition. It’s happened twice before and both were magical matches, with eight total goals in one (a 5-3 LAFC win in ‘19) and five in the other (a 3-2 LAFC win decided by an injury-time winner in ‘22). Here, the Galaxy would rue letting first place slip from their grasp in Houston on Decision Day. They lost 2-1 at BMO Stadium on Apr. 6, an occasion defined by two first-half set-piece goals by the hosts.
Has the Gs’ defending of restarts improved since then? Hmmm…
PATH DIFFICULTY RATING: 7.5/10 – the Galaxy don’t fear LAFC like other teams do, but they have yet to prove they’re on the Black & Gold’s level when it comes to high-stakes, high-leverage moments.
Back-to-back trips to MLS Cup, a march to the ‘23 Concacaf Champions Cup final (back when it was still called the CCL) and this year’s run to the Leagues Cup final constitute a mighty impressive tournament pedigree for the Angeleños, one we’re inclined to respect until someone knocks them from their perch.
Neither of the Wild Card teams they’d meet in Round One look remotely likely to do that, let alone on short rest in game one on Sunday. LAFC have dominated the Whitecaps for the past few years, took four of six points from the fun but fragile Timbers this season, and also happen to be riding a five-game winning streak, so we expect them to charge into the semifinals with a head of steam.
While they wouldn’t admit it publicly, Steve Cherundolo & Co. will surely be rooting for Seattle to take care of Houston in R1, because they’ve beaten the Sounders like a drum this year – four wins and zero losses with just one goal conceded across league, U.S. Open Cup and Leagues Cup action. We could argue that it’s harder and less likely for that to happen a whopping five times in one season, but it kind of feels like a stretch, no?
The aforementioned El Tráfico Western Conference final would be tasty indeed, and LAFC would be at least slight favorites over the Galaxy thanks to the home-field advantage they snatched on Decision Day. We will point out, however, that by that point – the weekend after US Thanksgiving – LAFC attacking talisman Denis Bouanga will likely have lots of miles on his body, assuming he joins Gabon for their Africa Cup of Nations qualifiers in the November FIFA international window.
PATH DIFFICULTY RATING: 4/10 – until further notice, it takes a brave bettor to lay any meaningful amount of money against Cherundolo’s battle-tested squad.
The ‘23 Supporters’ Shield winners have been ravaged by injuries this year, dropped a ton of points at home, limped to a 3W-7L-2D record down the home stretch and now meet a ball-dominant New York City FC outfit they lost to just a few weeks ago.
Still, they’ve got one of the most exciting, unpredictable playmakers in league history (Lucho Acosta) and a sturdy culture that helped them finish top-three despite all those headwinds. So we see them holding serve against the Pigeons to advance. Chalk results would mean a(nother) Hell Is Real Ohio throwdown with the No. 2-seeded Columbus Crew in the semifinals, and based on the absolute barnburner they produced in last year’s East final, that’s appointment viewing for all of us.
Cincy beat the Crew, soundly, at Lower.com Field this spring, their first-ever win in Columbus, though it must be mentioned that the Yellow Football Team were fully occupied with their run to the CCC final at the time. It’s often said form and table goes out the window when it comes to derbies. Yet in their current state, this would be a heavy lift for the Knifey Lions nonetheless.
It’s also said, originally by Jonas Salk, that the reward for work well done is the opportunity to do more. For FCC that would be a trip to Miami to go toe to toe with Leo Messi & Friends, who beat them 2-0 via two Luis Suárez goals in the first six minutes at Chase Stadium in August, even with Messi still sidelined and a Tomás Avilés red card providing them with a man advantage for the entire second half. Lucho will have to go supernova to pull off this upset.
For those seeking a silver lining… maybe this is a good time to mention that last year’s Crew-LAFC cup final was a meeting of No. 3 seeds?
PATH DIFFICULTY RATING: 9.5/10 – reaching this year’s MLS Cup would be a monumental achievement for Pat Noonan. Period.
“You come at the king, you best not miss,” right? Wilfried Nancy’s Crew are the reigning champs until someone rips the crown off their metaphorical head. And they’ve already done something rare by arriving at this point in fighting shape, despite deep runs in two knockout tourneys. In Round One they’re prohibitive favorites against a flatlining New York Red Bulls side with just one win in nine since their winless two-and-out Leagues Cup campaign.
As much mutual respect as there is between him and Noonan, we sense Nancy would relish a Hell Is Real renewal on home turf in the semis – what better way to stoke the spirits of the Crew faithful who made LDC such a raucous bowl of noise last autumn? Stifle Acosta and the rest of the Fighting Garys, and Columbus can aim for revenge in another massive showdown against Miami.
In June the Crew contrived to lose 2-1 to a Messi-less IMCF in Fort Lauderdale, undone by an early corner-kick goal and a Steven Moreira turnover deep in the defensive third. Then they rallied from 2-0 down at home to beat the Herons 3-2 in the Leagues Cup Round of 16 before falling to Miami by the same scoreline at home in league play earlier this month (Cucho Hernández failed to convert a late penalty kick that would have tied the score at 3-3), and had to watch the visitors celebrate clinching the Shield that night.
“Impossible is an opinion,” Nancy famously declared after last year’s triumph. And outpacing Messi and a full-strength IMCF on their own turf would merit a similarly iconic declaration. There’s a reason it’s been well over a decade since anyone won consecutive MLS Cups.
PATH DIFFICULTY RATING: 8/10 – it’s all about the Miami mission for the Crew, though multiple traps lie in wait along the way that could punish a reappearance of their tendency towards costly self-inflicted mistakes.
Few in MLS’s lifespan have boldly embraced high expectations on the Herons’ 2024 scale, and even fewer have lived up to them as well as IMCF. Still, all that fizzles if they do anything but win it all over the next seven weeks. And ‘the Supporters’ Shield curse’ is an established MLS phenomenon: Only four teams have pulled off a Shield-Cup double in the last two decades.
Five or six matches remain to attain their final objective, and eight months of historic, impressively dogged consistency earned them the right to play all but one of those on home soil in Fort Lauderdale. Whoever wins the East Wild Card game, predictions of a Round One Miami sweep will abound, even though CF Montréal upset a Messi-less IMCF in the season's opening weeks and ATLUTD took four of six points off the Herons, including a 3-1 victory at Chase Stadium in May. Remember that Tuesday’s winner faces a very quick turnaround to Friday’s Round One opener.
Miami are undefeated against both their potential semifinal adversaries, Orlando and Charlotte, to the tune of 2W-0L-2D with a combined eight goals scored and two conceded. Orlando are the higher seed and theoretically possess more weapons with which to match Miami’s firepower. Conversely, the Lions are winless against their downstate rivals since the dawn of the Messi era, and this is a tough time to start.
Chalk would then dictate a fourth Miami-Columbus clash of the year – a neutral’s dream ripe with narratives and on-field quality alike. IMCF have won two of the three prior meetings, though Tata Martino, Sergio Busquets and others in pink have said, repeatedly and in some detail, that they consider (considered?) the Crew to be the league’s best side, hailing their high-flying, ball-hawking protagonism.
Whoever wins that duel would host MLS Cup as clear favorites.
PATH DIFFICULTY RATING: 5/10 – the Crew would be a tough out, but with Messi and Suárez on song, an ample supporting cast and a winning mindset well-installed in the group? This is Miami’s cup to lose.
