One of the effects of 2020's compressed schedule was that managers had to go further down their benches to find players who could contribute in the midst of heavy squad rotation. One of the silver linings to come of that was the number of players who, instead of crumbling, thrived with those increased minutes.
The 2021 schedule has been released and, while it's not as compressed as what we saw last year, it is nonetheless heavy on the back-end with a lot of three-game weeks for literally every team. That means we're once again going to see lots of squad rotation, and lots of players who otherwise wouldn't be getting many minutes actually earning tons of them, and hopefully thriving.
I have no real idea of which players are going to get the call and answer the bell, especially since this transfer window isn't closed yet, and then there's another, entire transfer window open in the middle of the MLS season. A lot of things can and will change.
But it's a fun thought exercise to look at each team's roster and try to pick some hidden gems. So let's throw some darts.
Oh, and I'm automatically ruling out first-year players and DPs for what I feel are obvious reasons. Reverse alphabetical order for fun:
Breakout Candidate: Erik Godoy
Godoy, a 27-year-old Argentine, is entering his third year with the Whitecaps and has been pretty easily their best center back over the past two. That's not the highest bar in the world -- Vancouver have struggled, to put it politely, defensively -- but it's a starting point.
If the 'Caps improve in 2021 (and I think they're likely to), Godoy will be at the heart of it. He'll almost certainly be an every-game starter, and given the upgrades and increased stability and talent around him, it seems like the stage is set for him to attract notice outside of his home market and maybe earn some regard as one of the league's better overall center backs.
When to focus on him: From matchday 1. The 'Caps open the season with a rivalry game on Sunday, April 18th at the Portland Timbers (10 pm ET | ESPN+ in the US, TSN in Canada) -- who will already have a few CCL reps under their belt, and possess one of the league's more terrifying attacks. Godoy's going to have to put in a Team of the Week performance.
Breakout Candidate: Liam Fraser
There are no perfect candidates on this team given they appear to have locked-in starters at almost every position. This is where Fraser's ability to play multiple positions can potentially give him a leg up.
Fraser's natural home is probably as a d-mid, though we've also seen him as more of a No. 8 and as a center back. While I think he's useful in central midfield, I think his long-term upside as a ball-playing center back is pretty damn high. I'd love to see him get a run of games there, and if he does it's not too difficult imagining him just earning the spot outright.
When to focus on him: The Gold Cup ends on August 1. The third round of Concacaf's World Cup qualifying odyssey starts sometime in early September (the dates aren't set yet). Toronto play seven games in August, and all seven are against Eastern Conference teams. The last of those games is a Rivalry Week matchup against CF Montreal on August 27 (7:30 pm ET | ESPN+ in the US; TSN & TVAS in Canada), and this whole stretch is going to be Fraser's chance to earn a regular spot for club and country.
Breakout Candidate: Gianluca Busio
I mean, they gave him the No. 10:
We've all been waiting on this for a while. Kansas City moved on from the previous No. 10, and while Busio's not precisely guaranteed a starting job in central midfield, it sure seems like Vermes is giving the kid every chance to earn one.
When to focus on him: Sporting take on LAFC on June 26 (5 pm ET | ESPN & ESPN Deportes). It's a big game against one of the best teams in the league, which means it's a big stage for a big talent.
This is the kind of game that Brenden Aaronson used to break out two years ago, and now, presumably, it's Busio's turn.
Breakout Candidate: Kelyn Rowe
It's kind of weird to include a guy who's been in the league for a decade and has multiple US caps, but Rowe's really never quite lived up to his talent for one reason or another. He's now getting a fresh start with a Seattle team that's a man short thanks to the Jordan Morris injury, and that gives Rowe an obvious opportunity to step into bigger minutes for a contender.
There are three potential ways this happens:
- Right wingback as Brian Schmetzer goes to a 3-5-2
- Inverted left winger as Schmetzer sticks with a 4-2-3-1
- Inverted left midfielder in a 4-2-2-2
I like the 4-2-2-2 idea the best, since playing that shape would allow Nicolas Lodeiro to play his Uruguay role (he's almost always been an inverted, playmaking right winger for his national team), while allowing Rowe to play what I suspect is his own best role mirroring Lodeiro. This would also allow Schmetzer to get both Raul Ruidiaz and Fredy Montero onto the field together, which is something he's strongly hinted at this month.
When to focus on him: We'll know what the team's shape is by Week 4, probably, but keep an eye on the stretch from August 15 to August 29 when they play four games in 14 days, particularly noting the Cascadia Cup match against Portland on the 29th (10:30 pm ET; ESPN & ESPN Deportes). That's right after the summer transfer window opens, and we all know how much the Sounders love to do business in the summer.
That'll give us an idea not only of Rowe's role for the stretch run, but Seattle's ongoing viability as an apex-level contender.
Breakout Candidate: Marcos Lopez
Lopez is a case study in "give young players time to get used to MLS." He was awful in 2019, and very not good to start 2020. But as the then-20-year-old got more reps, he got more comfortable with the speed of the game and the scope of his defensive responsibilities as a left back in Matias Almeyda's system, and subsequently became more effective on both sides of the ball.
Now 21, Lopez has more than 30 MLS appearances as well as a handful of caps with the full Peruvian national team under his belt. He was a true attacking weapon down the stretch for the Earthquakes in year two, and is a good bet to level up in year three.
When to focus on him: This isn't just year three for Lopez, it's year three for Almeyda as well. And while the Quakes were better than expected in year one and improved in year two, the goal isn't just "improvement." The goal is to be one of the league's elite teams.
The hope is that they'll be playing to solidify that status when they head to LAFC on October 16 (3:30 pm ET; Univision & TUDN). This isn't a real rivalry yet, but these teams have managed to put together some spicy meetings over the past two years and if they're playing each other late in the season with more than just three points on the line ... well, it could become a rivalry real quick.
Breakout Candidate: David Ochoa
In 2019 the then-18-year-old backstopped the US U-20s to the U-20 World Cup quarterfinals, and then backstopped Real Monarchs to the USL title. There was good reason to think that with Nick Rimando retiring after that season, that 2020 would be Ochoa's time to break out.
It didn't happen that way. Ochoa played just once for RSL last year -- the final game of the season, a 2-0 loss to Sporting in which he should've done better on both goals -- and seemed to have stalled out.
The hope is that he'll have used his opportunity with the US U-23s this month to get a reboot. Ochoa was brilliant in the group-stage opener, a 1-0 win over Costa Rica:
He's still got to come back after the tournament and win the starting job for his club, but I don't think there's any doubt he has the talent to do so.
When to focus on him: RSL's always hanging around for the stretch run, and always need to lean on their 'keeper for a miracle performance or two. In this case the final month of the season, which kicks off with a trip to Austin FC on October 2 (3:30 pm ET | UniMas & TUDN) is obviously going to be make-or-break time.
Breakout Candidate: I have no idea
Precisely nobody saw it coming with Eryk Williamson last year. In part that's because Portland have historically been so reluctant to funnel young players up into major first-team roles, and in part that's because the Timbers are stacked with written-in-pen starters at almost every position. Such is the case again this season. That includes both fullback slots, which are manned by newcomers are aren't eligible for "breakout" status.
The closest I can come to ideating a potential breakout candidate is if Jeremy Ebobisse gets a run of games a center forward and somehow convinces Giovanni Savarese that yes, he actually is a No. 9. But it really seems like that ship has sailed.
When to focus on him: Early in the season as the Timbers are juggling both the Concacaf Champions League and the regular season schedule, and before DP center forward Jaroslaw Niezgoda returns from his ACL injury. Portland host Seattle on May 9 (3 pm ET | ABC). Will Ebobisse or Felipe Mora start at center forward?
I mean, we already kind of know. But things can change.
Breakout Candidate: Anthony Fontana
It looks like Fontana is going to inherit Aaronson's role, and it looks like he's attracted some interest from at least one Italian side as per The Philadelphia Inquirer. That sure seems like a nice start to what is obviously going to be a big year for the 21-year-old.
Fontana's not yet much of a playmaker, but he's a natural-born goalscorer, and showed it in some big moments for Philly last year:
There's the potential for lots of moments like those. If he puts the ball in the net, people will notice.
When to focus on him: From matchday 1 onward, obviously. The Union travel to the Columbus Crew on Sunday, April 18 (5:30 pm ET | FS1 & Fox Deportes in the US, TSN in Canada) as the Supporters' Shield holders face off against the MLS Cup winners. Seems like a good time to make a statement.
Breakout Candidate: Ruan
If Joao Moutinho was healthy he'd be the obvious choice, though you could argue that he actually broke out last year. But he's not, and given the severity of his injury, this entire season seems like something of a question mark for Orlando's starting left back.
Not so for their starting right back, Ruan, who is one of the fastest human beings I have ever seen in any sport outside of Olympic sprinting. This dude has Marvell Wynne-style top-end speed, but gets to that top end much quicker than Wynne did. And Oscar Pareja did a wonderful job of weaponizing it for the Lions last year.
The obvious final step for Ruan is generating more end product. He has nine assists in about 3700 regular season minutes over the past two years, which is very respectable for a fullback. But given the positions he's able to get into, he could just as easily have 19 if he was able to be more precise with the final ball.
If he does suddenly develop that skill, then Orlando City will have A) one of the very best right backs in MLS, and B) another guy generating multi-million-dollar overseas interest.
When to focus on him: Matchday 1! Orlando City and Atlanta United supposedly have a rivalry -- the fans clearly hate each other and Josef Martinez has had some Instagram fun in the past -- but they've never been good at the same time. Either Orlando was a disaster (2017-2019) or Atlanta was (2020).
This year they should be two of the top four teams in the East, and we'll get to see a real rivalry game when the Lions host the Five Stripes on Saturday, April 17 (3 pm ET | UniMas & TUDN in the US; DAZN in Canada).
Ruan and George Bello going head-to-head? Hell yes. Gimme that all day.
Breakout Candidate: Cristian Casseres Jr.
Casseres arrived in 2018 as an 18-year-old central midfielder with bags of potential, and perhaps a chance to be the heir to Tyler Adams. This is the beginning of his fourth season in Harrison, and Casseres, who is now 21, is still much more potential than production.
That's not to say he hasn't been good -- you could argue that for the past two years he's been one of the Red Bulls' better players, though as much more of a box-to-box No. 8 than an Adams-esque No. 6. But as good as he's been, I'd certainly say that he's never come close to "breaking out" given his talent.
The talk out of RBNY camp is that roles and responsibilities are clearer and more defined under new head coach Gerhard Struber. I think that'll help Casseres, and it wouldn't be at all shocking to see something like a top 3 finish in 22 Under 22 and a big European move (though probably not to RB Leipzig) next winter.
When to focus on him: We'll have an idea of the pecking order in Harrison by Week 2. RBNY travel to Carson to face the LA Galaxy on April 25 (5:30 pm ET | FS1 & FOX Deportes).
Breakout Candidate: Keaton Parks
I don't think people realize how good Parks has been over the past two years for one of the best teams in the league. Maybe it's because he doesn't make a ton of highlight plays and doesn't end up in the boxscore a ton, but man ... at some point we've got to be able to look beyond that.
Thankfully, we're in the nascent stages of an analytics revolution and the advanced analytics we have all love the big No. 8:
Parks does two things exceptionally well: receive the ball under pressure without turning it over, and advance the ball upfield into super useful positions. And he does all of that while being very easy on the eye -- few players in the league are smoother, or make the game look easier.
It is bizarre to me he wasn't a part of the US U23s.
When to focus on him: Whenever NYCFC play -- dude's a starter every single game. But they clearly need somebody to step up and win them a few big games throughout the year in order to get over the top and actually win a trophy or two. That means there are tons of dates to circle, but I'll zero in on the final Hudson River Derby of the season on October 17 against the Red Bulls (1 pm ET | ESPN & ESPN Deportes).
Breakout Candidate: DeJuan Jones
Jones came into the league out of the 2019 SuperDraft as a winger, but almost instantly was converted to fullback. Out of necessity he's played primarily as a left back over the past two years, but I suspect New England's offseason signing of Christian Mafla -- a true left back -- means Jones is going to be thrown into the fight for the starting RB job.
It's not guaranteed he'll win it. Brandon Bye had some very good moments there last year and is a superb crosser of the ball, and Tajon Buchanan was a an overlapping force as an emergency RB in the playoffs (though Bruce Arena has sworn Buchanan's going to be a winger this season). There is also veteran A.J. DeLaGarza to consider.
This is good -- competition for spots is the hallmark of a good team, and iron sharpens iron. Jones has a chance to come out of this not only as the starting RB, but as a significant player in New England's push for silverware.
When to focus on him: Will he actually win the job? I think we'll know that early in the year, before the games start coming too fast.
But the biggest test is obviously the one against the team that knocked them out of last year's playoffs. New England head to Columbus for the brand new Crew Stadium opener on July 3 (5 pm ET | ESPN & ESPN Deportes). It's a litmus test nor just for Jones, but for the whole team.
Breakout Candidate: Alistair Johnston
Know who the breakout player was for Nashville last year? Center back Dave Romney. He went from a rotation piece (at best) with a disastrous LA Galaxy defense to an every-game starter -- and an above average one, it should be said -- for one of the best defenses in the league. He was really, really good.
He was also overshadowed by his partner, Defender of the Year Walker Zimmerman, and to a lesser extent by the veteran d-mid partnership of Dax McCarty and Anibal Godoy in front of him. And together, the four of them almost completely overshadowed the fullbacks.
While left back Daniel Lovitz was a known and largely appreciated quantity, Johnston was not. He was a mid-first round draft pick, and considered something of a 'tweener -- not skillful enough for central midfield and not athletic enough for fullback.
It took him four games to win the starting job at right back, and he kept it for the entire rest of the year, which included the deepest playoff run for an expansion team since the 1998 Chicago Fire won the whole thing. Johnston was mostly mistake free, but added a ton of value with his ability to simply and efficiently distribute the ball and get his team out of trouble.
John Herdman noticed, at least. Johnston just got called into the Canadian national team camp, and is looking for his first cap at any level.
When to focus on him: The lead-up to the Gold Cup will be huge for Johnston, who's competing with a bunch of other talented and mostly young Canadian right backs. The home game against Austin FC on May 23 (9 pm ET | FS1 & FOX Deportes) seems like a particularly good test.
Breakout Candidate: Kamal Miller
You don't pay $225k of allocation money for a young defender you intend to sit. Even in the midst of yet another offseason of upheaval in Montreal, one thing I'm pretty sure of is that Miller is going to get plenty of chances to get out there and win the job.
What job will it be, exactly? My hope for Montreal's sake and for Miller's is that Wilfried Nancy goes with the same sort of five-man backline that Thierry Henry seemed prefer. Miller was miscast as a left back for his two years in Orlando, and I think there are genuine questions to play as a center back in a back four.
But left center back in a back five seems to fit his skillset, both technically and athletically. It could end up working out really well for him and for Montreal -- and for Canada, who are short of central defenders.
When to focus on him: As with Johnston, the lead-up to the Gold Cup will be huge for Miller, but arguably the month after it will be even bigger. Montreal run a gauntlet, with the obvious highlight being the game against Toronto August 27 (7:30 pm ET | TSN & TVAS).
Breakout Candidate: Hassani Dotson
I did not have to dig too deep to come up with this name. Dotson's in the midst of working his way into the consciousness of the USMNT fanbase, and has probably been the best field player for the US through two games of Olympic qualifying.
You know about the goals, but it's the other stuff that's been even more eye-catching:
Dotson, for the US U23s, has been something of a problem-solver in midfield both with his defense (no surprise there), as well as his intelligence and assuredness in possession. Dude finds the ball and then can do really, really good stuff with it.
We haven't seen a ton of that from him in his various roles with Minnesota. He's mostly been used as a destroyer (sometimes advanced, more often deeper) or fullback depth. But there are clearly other layers to his game.
When to focus on him: We could get a feel for how much of his expanded skillset will be on display as soon as matchday 1. Minnesota travel to Seattle to face the Sounders in a rematch of last year's Western Conference final on April 16 (9:30 pm ET | FS1 and Fox Deportes in the US; DAZN in Canada).
Starting the year with a bit of revenge could be a nice prelude to a longer-lasting, more far-reaching breakout.
Breakout Candidate: Robbie Robinson
There's no great candidate here, and it feels like something of a cheat to pick last year's top overall SuperDraft pick as the breakout candidate. Guys who go first are supposed to be good by year two. If that's what happens with Robinson he hasn't really "broken out," he's just lived up to expectations.
Still, it's worth noting two things here. One is that new manager Phil Neville has repeatedly namechecked Robinson as a top young talent in preseason, and two is that Miami have taken an absolute beating over the past eight months or so for selecting Robinson over Daryl Dike, who dropped all the way to the fifth slot. It seems to me that there has to be at least a little bit of pressure to play Robinson and show that last year's decision, in the long-term, was not as disastrous as it seems right now.
And then there's the other thing: Robinson actually is really, really good. He shouldn't have gone over Dike (I will never fully understand that pick), but in most years he'd absolutely be worth the top spot. I mean, the Chilean federation is monitoring him -- he's not on their radar by accident. He's there because, unless his team is completely broken, he puts the ball into the back of the net.
That, obviously, is a pretty big "unless."
When to focus on him: My guess is we'll see him as a super-sub in what I've deemed "The Beckham Bowl," as Inter host the Galaxy in matchday 1 on April 18 (3 pm ET | ABC, ESPN Deportes in the US; TSN in Canada). That would be a hell of a time to score your first MLS goal, and to start rolling back the narrative about a botched No. 1 pick.
Breakout Candidate: Julian Araujo
FC Dallas played 19-year-old right back Bryan Reynolds through his early mistakes and ended up reaping the rewards, via both his on-field productivity and a massive offseason transfer to AS Roma.
LA either played 19-year-old right back Araujo as a winger, or sat him behind veteran Rolf Feltscher. They missed the playoffs and reaped no rewards.
What I'm saying is that Araujo should've broken out last year. The good news is that it seems, based upon LA's roster and what we've heard from new coach Greg Vanney so far, as well as Vanney's track-record of bringing talent through the pipeline with Toronto, that Araujo is the expected starter at right back for 2021.
It's a year late, but I don't think it's too late. And if Araujo plays well, we already know that some of the biggest clubs in the world are watching.
When to focus on him: Matchday 1. Beckham Bowl. April 18 (3 pm ET | ABC, ESPN Deportes in the US; TSN in Canada).
In reality, though, the best time to watch him will be the game after he makes his first catastrophic mistake of the year. A major mistake like that will come, and it'll cost the Galaxy a point or three. It'll be telling to see whether or not he's in the XI again -- whether the Galaxy will let him play through the lows in order to reach his considerable potential.
Breakout Candidate: Cal Jennings
I'm breaking my own rule (no first-year-in-MLS players) because I'm so excited about this dumb pick. Jennings was a goal-machine in college for UCF, scoring 46 goals over the course of his career, including 32 over his final two seasons. He was then picked 17th overall in the 2020 SuperDraft but ... didn't actually sign with FC Dallas, who already had a TAM center forward, a DP center forward and two homegrown USYNT center forwards on the roster.
So Jennings went to the USL and in 570 minutes with Memphis the dude scored nine goals, including this hat-trick:
A few things at play here can make this the perfect storm:
- Bob Bradley loves developing young players. No coach in MLS history has a better track record.
- LAFC have steadfastly refused to sign a DP center forward.
- LAFC are a chance-generating juggernaut, and Jennings just has a Chris Wondolowski-esque feel for poaching goals.
There will obviously be competition for the No. 9 job in the form of incumbent Danny Musovski -- another USL reclamation project, it should be noted -- and perhaps Corey Baird. If you were to offer preseason odds, Jennings would probably come in third.
But this kid didn't just stumble in from an open try-out. He was a college All-American, a first-round draft pick and a goal machine in the USL. LAFC didn't just pluck him out of obscurity; they went and paid a transfer fee for him, just as they did for Mark-Anthony Kaye ahead of the 2018 season.
I can smell this story cooking and I love it.
When to focus on him: Matchday 1, once again. LAFC host Austin on April 17 (5:30 pm ET | FOX and Fox Deportes in the US; TSN in Canada) and if Jennings has made an impression in training camp, I am absolutely certain Bradley will have no qualms with throwing him into the fire right away.
Breakout Candidate: Derrick Jones
Jones, a Union homegrown, is a former USYNT regular who is in danger of becoming a journeyman. The 24-year-old is on his third team in three years, but the good news is that in manager Tab Ramos, he'll see a familiar face in training every day.
Jones was part of Ramos's 2017 US U-20 group -- a big part of it, in fact, as he was often starting in central midfield alongside Tyler Adams. In the quarterfinal against Venezuela there's no question who the better of those two guys was, and it's not the guy who's currently starting for RB Leipzig.
But while Adams has flourished, Jones has stagnated. Last year was a small step forward as he contributed to a good team, but he still only scratched the surface of what he could actually be. The clock is ticking.
Nobody's gotten more from him, for any team, than Ramos. It feels like this is the right fit.
When to focus on him: The newcomers in Austin are making lots of noise, but the rivalry's with Dallas. Houston pay Frisco a visit on May 8 (3:30 pm ET | Univision & TUDN).
Want to endear yourself to fans wearing orange? Smash FCD.
Breakout Candidate: Russell Canouse
I might be cheating here because Canouse kind of broke out back in 2018, when he was one of the top three d-mids in the league for half a season, which earned him a bit of press and a call-up to Gregg Berhalter's first USMNT camp.
But Canouse was cut from the camp and hasn't been back, and for D.C. he's mostly either been injured or played out of position the past two seasons. And so he's understandably fallen out of the public consciousness.
If he moves back to d-mid (which seems to be the plan under new head coach Hernan Losada) and plays like he did in 2018, he will climb back into said public consciousness because this dude could ball. He was legit:
They need him back in this spot, playing at this level.
When to focus on him: I don't think that Canouse is going to play his way back into Berhalter's plans, and I'm sure that burns him up. Maybe he'll have extra motivation in August when some of his old USYNT teammates are at the Gold Cup, or in September when World Cup qualifying starts. Let's say that September 18 at Atlanta United (3:30 pm ET | Univision & TUDN) is a good one to keep an eye on.
Breakout Candidate: Jimmy Maurer
In 2020 Maurer finally got a real shot at the No. 1 kit after a decade spent either kicking around the lower levels of the US soccer pyramid or, since 2018, backing up an arguably inferior 'keeper. It was worth the wait.
Maurer was excellent going by traditional metrics, as he allowed .81 goals per 90 and recorded seven shutouts while saving nearly 80% of the shots he faced and the more advanced stuff, as his G-xG of -1.46 put him comfortably in the top half of MLS 'keepers, around the likes of Stefan Frei and Eloy Room. That is good company, but not company of the type most people think of when they hear Maurer's name.
Another season of this, though, and they will.
When to focus on him: I think the trip to Austin FC is arguably a bigger deal to Dallas than the home game -- they'll want to leave their mark on the newcomers in their brand new stadium. That'll be on August 29 (8 pm ET | FS1 & FOX Deportes in the US; DAZN in Canada), and the hope for everyone in Frisco, I'm sure, is that Maurer has a very quiet day.
But if he needs to come up big, that would be a nice time to do it.
Breakout Candidate: Marlon Hairston
For years I've hoped that someone would turn Hairston into an attacking right back. It looks like the Crew are going to give it a shot.
At first it's obviously going to come as Harrison Afful's back-up, but Afful turns 35 just before the stretch run starts. He'll want to play every game, but he won't be able to, and any time the squad is rotated that's going to give Hairston a chance to stake a claim on more minutes as he becomes more comfortable with the position and within Caleb Porter's system.
He is not going to unseat Afful, I don't think. But there is a world in which Hairston adjusts so completely that he becomes the obvious heir apparent.
Hairston certainly has the talent to make it happen. Now he'll start to get the reps.
When to focus on him: Afful turns 35 on July 24. Over the subsequent five weeks Columbus have seven games. It's hard to know which ones the squad will be rotated for, but I'm going to circle the date for the MLS Cup rematch against Seattle on August 21 (5:30 pm ET | FOX & FOX Deportes in the US; TSN in Canada).
Breakout Candidate: Jonathan Lewis
It's pretty much now or never, right? Lewis has himself a new contract and a clear path toward winning a starting spot. He's also been super productive on a per-90 basis, scoring 13 goals with 9 assists in 2800 minutes across four professional seasons.
But the fact is, as productive as he's been a surfeit of coaches have found only 2800 minutes for him across four professional seasons. I think with Lewis there's a baseline acceptance now that he's going to be a dangerous, line-running contributor -- we've seen it for both club and country -- but it's not clear at all if there's a path for him to be more than that. If he gets 2800 minutes in one season rather than across four, will his productivity hold up? Will his energy?
I think the answer is yes. I'm still holding onto all of my Lewis stock. Diamond hands.
When to focus on him: Colorado have six games in September -- a super-packed month, with five of those six games against Western Conference teams. Just by eyeballing it, I'd say the September 11 home game vs. the Galaxy (3:30 pm ET | UniMas & TUDN in the US; DAZN in Canada) has the highest "make or break potential."
Breakout Candidate: Frankie Amaya
I think I'm going with Amaya by default. The 2019 No. 1 overall SuperDraft pick has been pretty good for Cincy over the past two years, arguably the one silver lining thus far. But I think it's a stretch to say that he's "broken out" beyond the circles of Cincy fans and MLS uber-nerds.
He made waves by publicly requesting a trade this offseason, which is often the prelude to either 1) a trade, or 2) an unhappy season that results in a trade, but Cincy sure did turn down a whole lot of money for him. You don't say no to seven figures worth of allocation cash unless you're planning to play the kid -- a lot, and in his best spot.
Let's hope for the kid's sake and for Cincy's that they're able to figure things out and start playing good, winning soccer. He has the talent to help them do so.
When to focus on him: Cincy open their new stadium on Sunday, May 16 when they host Inter Miami (4 pm ET | FOX & Fox Deportes in the US: DAZN in Canada).
There is no rivalry between these teams, and other games will, I'm sure, have much bigger playoff implications. But this really does feel like a second chance to make a first impression on the fanbase, and that can be particularly relevant for Amaya after this offseason.
Breakout Candidate: Francisco Calvo
There's zero question that he's among the league's best distributors from the backline, and there's zero question that he's been a very, very good player for a long time with Costa Rica.
Calvo has 51 caps. He has played in Gold Cups, the Copa America and the World Cup itself, as well as World Cup qualifying. He's won titles in the Costa Rican league and played in the CCL with the biggest clubs in his country. And in MLS he can't stop doing stuff like this:
Watch the whole clip to see just how much deeper Calvo was than the rest of the Fire backline, just ball-watching.
It makes no sense. If he plays as well for his club as he does for Costa Rica, he'll be one of the best center backs in the league. This is year five of me saying that.
When to focus on him: The Fire have a huge stretch from July 17 to August 18. The biggest of those games is probably August 1 against Philly (6 pm ET | UniMas & TUDN in the US; DAZN in Canada).
Unless Costa Rica make the Gold Cup final, Calvo will likely be back with the Fire by then, and they'll likely need him.
Breakout Candidate: Diego Fagundez
Fagundez is at the start of his second decade as a professional. He just turned 26 years old. That is one year younger than \ Wondolowski was when he broke out and became an MLS regular. Fagundez isn't about to put up Wondo numbers, but he's got 53 career goals and 45 career assists while bouncing around between three different attacking roles with the Revs.
For the first time in his professional life, he's got a new address, and with it might come a new role. I am not yet certain what formation Josh Wolff's team is going to play and what style, but my baseline assumption is that it's going to look a lot like Berhalter's national team, for which Wolff was an assistant until recently. And in that type of set-up, there are two obvious spots for Fagundez: Inverted attacking left winger or one of the free 8s.
Here's what we think the depth chart looks like at the moment:
You see they have a DP at left wing, and then brought in two younger players for that spot as well. They also brought in a DP for one of the free 8s.
But the other spot? As of now it seems like it's between Fagundez and No. 2 overall draft pick Danny Pereira.
It is very easy to imagine that Fagundez, finally in a highly structured system and finally in a spot that plays to his strengths ... it just clicks. This is a guy who's had seasons with nine goals and ten assists, seven goals and eight assists and 13 goals and seven assists. He can play.
And maybe then he can finally live up to all the potential literally everyone saw in him when he came into the league way back in 2011.
When to focus on him: Matchday 1 seems a little unfair since Austin have to go to LAFC on April 17 (5:30 pm ET | FOX and Fox Deportes in the US; TSN in Canada). And then they stay on the road for two straight months before opening up their stadium in mid-June.
Which makes that the date to focus on. On Saturday, June 19 Austin host San Jose at their brand new stadium (9 pm ET | UniMas & TUDN in the US; TSN in Canada).
Breakout Candidate: George Bello
I wrote a whole thing about Ezequiel Barco and how this is going to be his year before I remembered that I'd ruled out DPs, so ... yeah. I can't name Barco to this list even though I am surreptitiously picking up some really devalued Barco stock.
Bello stock is not devalued, and that's because it was obvious he'd started to figure stuff out on the defensive side of the ball down the stretch last season. Combine that with his obvious gifts going forward and high-level physical tools, and you've got the next candidate for a big-money overseas transfer on the MLS fullback-to-Europe conveyor belt. First it was DeAndre Yedlin, then it was Alphonso Davies, then it was Reggie Cannon, then it was Bryan Reynolds, and let's not forget Joe Scally...
Bello's 19 now and a surefire starter. He has the talent to make an "actually, this guy's the best LB in MLS" case by midseason. Given Gabriel Heinze's reputation for getting the best out of his most talented, players, I'm not going to bet against Bello hitting his ceiling.
When to focus on him: That matchday 1 rivalry game against Orlando on April 17 (3 pm ET | UniMas & TUDN in the US; DAZN in Canada) is spicy, and is a good place to start given the overlapping threat Ruan represents. Let's start there and see how Bello -- who will likely have a couple of CCL appearances under his belt by then -- manages.
