Expected goals: Whose playoff hopes are fact or fiction?

With the stretch run in full swing, expected goals is one metric to gauge each club's likelihood of making noise in the Audi 2023 MLS Cup Playoffs – or why they'll end Decision Day with frustration.

For those unfamiliar, xG measures the quality of scoring chances by calculating how likely they are to result in a goal. Every chance is measured on a scale from zero (impossible to score) to one (expected to score every time), with on-field position and phase of play factoring in.

Data is sourced from Opta.

Teams: Top 10 xG overperformers

St. Louis CITY SC have defied expansion-club expectations in 2023, and the Western Conference leaders are poised to soon clinch a playoff spot. But the underlying numbers suggest they're outperforming their xG by a whopping 19.09 goals. Is that sustainable, or will João Klauss, Eduard Löwen et al fizzle out in the postseason?

Eastern Conference contenders Columbus Crew and Atlanta United are the other clubs to reach 50 goals scored before Matchday 32, and they have similarly out-performed their xG by a 10+ margin. On the flip side, you've got Western Conference sides Portland Timbers and Sporting Kansas City below the playoff line and slightly outperforming what the models suggest.

Teams: Top 10 xG underperformers

Colorado Rapids are on track for a Wooden Spoon (last in MLS) finish, and a major reason why is they've massively underperformed their xG by 13.31 goals. With 2022 leading scorer Diego Rubio out for long stretches, and new pieces not firing, the final-third woes have stacked up.

Hudson River Derby rivals New York Red Bulls (11.11 underperformance) and New York City FC (6.22 underperformance) can also point to lackluster finishing as their Eastern Conference playoff dreams flicker.

If traditional Western Conference powerhouses Seattle Sounders FC (8.17 underperformance) and LAFC (5.11 underperformance) were scoring as the underlying numbers suggest, they might be challenging St. Louis for first place.