FiveThirtyEight: Projecting the playoff qualifiers on Decision Day

The Philadelphia Union didn’t clinch a first Supporters’ Shield title Sunday, but they are still overwhelming favorites to do so, according to the latest FiveThirtyEight projections.

The Union’s loss to Columbus, coupled with Toronto FC’s win over Inter Miami CF puts the Eastern Conference foes level on 40 points heading into Decision Day presented by AT&T with identical 13W-4L-5D records. But the Union are still 80 percent likely to claim their first major trophy, likely due to Philly's almost insurmountable advantage in goal differential per game, which is the second tiebreaker.

On Sunday, Philadelphia are home to the New England Revolution (3:30 pm ET | TV & streaming info), while Toronto FC head to Harrison to take on the New York Red Bulls (3:30 pm ET | TV & streaming info). Greg Vanney’s side have an 18 percent chance to lift the Shield for a second time in club history.

Projecting the playoff berths

The other drama on Decision Day surrounds the final four playoff berths up for grabs — two in each conference.

In the Eastern Conference, five teams are vying for the final two berths, but the Chicago Fire FC (10th place with 1.05 points per game) look to have the best chance to book their ticket at 62 percent, according to FiveThirtyEight. The other spot appears to be a toss-up between the Montreal Impact pegged at 45 percent (9th place with 1.05 ppg) and Inter Miami CF at 46 percent (12th place at 0.95 ppg). Atlanta United and D.C. United are projected to miss out.

In the Western Conference, four teams are still alive heading into the final week of the regular season with two spots up for grabs. FiveThirty Eight says it'll be the two teams currently occupying the playoff spots: Colorado Rapids with an 88 percent chance of clinching followed by the San Jose Earthquakes at 79 percent favorites.

Below the playoff line, the LA Galaxy (15 percent) and Vancouver Whitecaps (11 percent) are seen as the long shots.

Check out the full projections here, and digest the Supporters' Shield and playoff-clinching favorites below:

Projected Supporters' Shield chances

1. Philadelphia Union - 80%
2. Toronto FC - 18%

Projected playoff-clinching chances

Eastern Conference (2 berths)

1. Chicago Fire FC - 62%
2. Inter Miami CF - 46%
3. Montreal Impact - 45%
4. Atlanta United - 30%
5. D.C. United - 17%

Western Conference (2 berths)

1. Colorado Rapids - 88%
2. San Jose Earthquakes - 79%
3. LA Galaxy - 15%
4. Vancouver Whitecaps - 11%