It's a buzzkill to mention this on opening day of a tournament that is reliably interesting and fun regardless, but…
Unless you're a fan of the US or Mexican national teams, your team is highly, highly likely to exit the Gold Cup with long faces.
El Tri and their Yanqui rivals from north of the river have won 11 of this event's 12 editions, with Canada's plucky 2000 squad the only outsiders to break up the duopoly. So it's no surprise that most pundits approach their Gold Cup picks as a red-pill-or-blue-pill choice.
Hope springs eternal, of course, and the CONCACAF region's steady growth has put several smaller programs in good position to make some noise this time around. From bottom to top, here's a quick rundown of this year's contenders, pretenders and no-hopers.
12. Cuba: Let's all get home in one piece
It's not a great sign of your prospects when much of the chatter about you centers on whether your players will defect in droves on US soil like in so many Gold Cups past, given the warming relations between the old Cold War enemies. With an increasingly soccer-mad population of 11.2 million, this is a sleeping giant in CONCACAF. The alarm clock is ringing, but it probably won't wake up this edition of Los Leones del Caribe (the Lions of the Caribbean) in time.
11. Trinidad & Tobago: Not a Carnival atmosphere
Your correspondent has a huge soft spot for the Soca Warriors' spirit and athleticism, and Joevin Jones has been a revelation for the Chicago Fire this season. Yet the mood seems dark in the islanders' camp with a losing streak, key figures like Orlando City standout Kevin Molino sidelined by injury and coach Stephen Hart lamenting “the state of constant uncertainty” brought on by poor planning and organization. It'll take legit heroics from striker Kenwyne Jones for T&T to make a deep run.
10. Guatemala: Just glad to be here
Los Chapines didn't even qualify for the last Gold Cup, outpaced by the likes of little Belize, so reaching the final of the 2014 Copa Centroamericana was a welcome sign of progress for their passionate fans. A reliance on aging warhorse Carlos Ruiz up front doesn't bode so well at this level, but they might have a shot at second place in a cushy-looking Group C.
9. El Salvador: 12th-man golazo?
Another CONCACAF mighty mouse, Los Cuscatlecos can punch way above their weight on a good day. They'll likely gain a home-field advantage from their country's big expatriate populations in the USA, and the shame of the 2013 match-fixing scandal should have them motivated to shine. But that talent pool just isn't all that deep.
8. Haiti: Humble hopes, quiet confidence
Few CONCACAF nations have to overcome as much adversity just to get on the field as
Les Grenadiers
. Their nation remains in recovery mode after the devastating 2010 earthquake, but a more professional approach to this year's tournament and a growing foreign legion give them hope. Keep an eye on livewire attackers Jeff Louis and Kervens Belfort.
7. Canada: Not bad, eh?
Relying on a solid MLS contingent, Spanish head coach Benito Floro has Les Rouges headed in a positive direction, and it will be fascinating to see how his pressing style fares in Gold Cup play. No one is quite sure how this new-look side will react to the stresses of major tournament play, but at least they get to play Group B favorites Costa Rica in front of a home crowd at BMO Field on July 14.
6. Jamaica: Where dem goals deh, Boyz?
The Reggae Boyz were more than respectable in their Copa America cameo, only giving up one goal apiece to Uruguay, Paraguay and mighty Argentina. But the attack has gone stale and former Colorado Rapid Deshorn Brown, who would be leading the line at the Gold Cup, elected to stay with his in-season Norwegian club Vålerenga instead. Oh, and a pay dispute with their federation saw the team boycott Monday's training session in California. It appears to have been resolved, but... not ideal.
5. Honduras: Catrachos macho, or gacho?
After two straight World Cup appearances, it looked like
Los Catrachos
would join CONCACAF's elite on a permanent basis. But they've tailed off dramatically since last summer's horror show in Brazil and have looked grindingly physical of late – just ask Mexican star Javier “Chicharito” Hernandez, who had his collarbone broken in last week's 0-0 friendly draw vs. Honduras.
Much – probably too much – rides on the boney shoulders of D.C. United product Andy Najar.
4. Panama: One last voyage for golden Canaleros
FC Dallas striker Blas Perez (34 years old) and LA Galaxy goalkeeper Jaime Penedo (33) lead Panama's “golden generation” into an event they nearly won, against all odds, two years ago. We expect the annoyingly entertaining Perez, aka “Super Ratón,” to be motivated for this tourney, but his team is likely to meet Costa Rica in the quarterfinals – a tough ask.
3. Mexico: El Tri harder
What's that, you say? Mighty El Tri falling out of the top two? That's right: The loss of Chicharito, the scoring struggles, the increasingly erratic vibe of manager Miguel “Piojo” Herrera... it all adds up to an underperforming side whose flaws might not be exposed in their cushy group assignment, but will be outed eventually – probably in the semifinals.
2. Costa Rica: Birds of paradise grow claws
Los Ticos have questions of their own to answer in the coming weeks, but the collective culture seems to have evolved from “consistently plucky overachievers” to “we can do anything” over the past year or two. If the rest of the team can adequately support a sterling strike force led by Bryan Ruiz, Joel Campbell and Real Salt Lake's Álvaro Saborío, they could well be raising a trophy in Philadelphia on July 26.
1. USA: Time for the next level
This is the Yanks' tournament to lose. Don't believe me? Well, the oddsmakers at bet365 have them at 11/8 to defend their title, and Jurgen Klinsmann has called up what he considers a full-strength roster. Barring any stumbles – yes, we're thinking mainly of howler-prone defender Timmy Chandler here – the USMNT will be feasting on cheesesteaks and water ice with trophy in hand at the end of the month. Will they get there in style?
