There’s no better mirror in Major League Soccer than the standings. The standings never lie, and what you see is what you get this time of year.
Mirror, mirror on the wall…
Great teams are great teams, secure in their top-four seed and home-field advantage in Round One of the Audi MLS Cup Playoffs. You know who they are…
EASTERN CONFERENCE
- Inter Miami CF
- FC Cincinnati
- Columbus Crew
WESTERN CONFERENCE
- LA Galaxy
- LAFC
- Real Salt Lake*
*I feel confident putting RSL among the West top four – Chicho, time to re-discover your early-season form – but it could get interesting if they lose at Houston on Saturday (8:30 pm ET | MLS Season Pass).
Good teams are good teams, playoff shoo-ins (or darn near) that are still chasing a top seed.
EASTERN CONFERENCE
- New York Red Bulls
- New York City FC
- Charlotte FC
- Orlando City SC
WESTERN CONFERENCE
- Colorado Rapids
- Seattle Sounders FC
- Vancouver Whitecaps FC
- Houston Dynamo FC
- Portland Timbers
Bubble teams are bubble teams, every ounce of remaining energy poured into making an already generous playoff field.
EASTERN CONFERENCE
- Toronto FC
- D.C. United
- Atlanta United
- Philadelphia Union
- New England Revolution
- CF Montréal*
WESTERN CONFERENCE
- Minnesota United FC
- FC Dallas
- Austin FC
*It was an act of charity putting CF Montréal in this group given their form (three straight league Ls by an 10-1 scoreline) and minus-23 goal differential. The only reason they’re not banished to the “bottom” tier is their upcoming schedule is extremely soft…
Bad teams because, well, they’re bad. We know it, they’ve experienced it firsthand for the past seven months and, despite the occasional mirage of decent to even good form, they won’t be playing past Decision Day on Oct. 19. They’re zombies: technically alive, but we all know they’re walking dead.
EASTERN CONFERENCE
- Chicago Fire FC
- Nashville SC
WESTERN CONFERENCE
- Sporting Kansas City
- St. Louis CITY SC
- San Jose Earthquakes
We’ve got plenty of time to dig into teams with the playoffs in their future – and even more to evaluate the bottom tier – so today is about those clubs trying to scratch and claw their way out of purgatory.
Ultimately, their fate will be determined by a ranking. So today we’re ranking which clubs are under the most pressure, from most to least, to get the job done in the season’s final five weeks, separated by conference.
Reminder: The top nine teams per conference qualify!
- STANDINGS: 30 pts (11th) … 2 points below the line … 7 games remaining
- SCHEDULE: @MIA, @NYC, DC, ATL, @ORL, @CLB, CIN
The Union’s championship window is still open – hello, Andre Blake – no matter how many times they’ve tried to close it this year, through their own mistakes and just horrendous bad luck. Perhaps no club knows better that even faint championship hopes cannot be given up on without a fight.
Every game is a de facto playoff game from here on out, and should the Union jump the line, they’ll have plenty of sweat accumulated against the East’s top teams. Just look at that remaining schedule. It’s murderers’ row. The odds … are not with Jim Curtin’s boys.
The pressure is on Philly because this might just be it for this group and they can’t afford to come up for air even once the rest of the way.
- STANDINGS: 33 pts (8th) … 2 points above the line … 6 games remaining
- SCHEDULE: ATX, CLB, @COL, @CHI, RBNY, MIA
I debated between Toronto and Atlanta here, but John Herdman’s group got the nod because they haven’t have club-changing turnover disrupt their season and the Reds have been in the playoff field for basically the entire season.
Herdman is trying to rebuild the culture. That job becomes much easier when you deliver a playoff spot in your first season rather than blow it down the stretch. Plus, if you blow it with four home games in your final six…
- STANDINGS: 31 pts (10th) … 1 point below the line … 7 games remaining
- SCHEDULE: NSH, MIA, @RBNY, @PHI, MTL, RBNY, @ORL
It’s Atlanta United. There is always pressure, though I would argue getting the offseason decisions right (chief soccer officer, manager, DP No. 9) carries more weight than sneaking into the playoffs. Which is not to say slumping to the finish won’t come with significant consequences.
- STANDINGS: 32 pts (9th) … 1 point above the line … 6 games remaining
- SCHEDULE: NYC, @PHI, CLB, @NSH, @NE, CLT
D.C. are currently/barely above the line and have the most dominant player (Christian Benteke) among the bubble teams. The group, I am sure, desperately want to hold on to their position slash host or (far less likely) climb out of the Wild Card game.
But big, bad, you-better-not-mess-this-up-or-else pressure? Nahhhhhh. This is year one of a rebuild, after all. Troy Lesesne and his team ought to let others wilt under the pressure and play free the rest of the way. If they do, there’s a decent chance they’ll host a playoff game come late October.
- STANDINGS: 27 pts (12th) … 5 points below the line … 8 games remaining
- SCHEDULE: @ORL, MTL, @CLT, NSH, @HOU, DC, @CLB, @MIA
Those two dropped points against St. Louis CITY loom large for this group, especially because the remaining schedule (five away games, all against playoff teams, with trips to Columbus and Miami to finish) is not kind.
Given the Revs’ horrendous start, the playoffs have always felt like a bit of a pipedream this season. So yeah, they’d love to make a Sporting KC-esque charge up the standings … but nobody really expects it to happen, even with a game in hand. The true pressure comes in 2025, with another transfer window to match the squad to Caleb Porter’s eye and no built-in excuses.
- STANDINGS: 27 pts (13th) … 5 points below the line … 7 games remaining
- SCHEDULE: CLT, @NE, CHI, SJ, @ATL, @CLT, NYC
Montréal’s playoff chances come down to the next four games, all very winnable, including three at home. Time for guys like Matías Cóccaro, Josef Martínez, Samuel Piette and Joel Waterman to step up. Nine points from 12 and they’ve got a slim chance. Anything less, adios.
The only thing you can bet on in Québec is change, and once again it seems wholesale change and the ever-hanging guillotine – for players, for managers, for front-office personnel – has cast a shadow over another bummer of a season and the upcoming offseason.
The pressure in Montréal is existential. Which veterans will be back, either deemed poor signings or poor fits for the style of play? Will the managerial conveyor belt somehow claim Laurent Courtois, the fourth head man in five years? Will former Crew executive Corey Wray sign on permanently to run the front office after consulting the second half of the year?
Only time will tell.
- STANDINGS: 34 pts (10th) … 2 points below the line … 6 games remaining
- SCHEDULE: @RSL, LAFC, ORL, @SJ, @POR, SKC
The pressure in Dallas comes from the urgency.
Dallas have one fewer game remaining than their bubble competitors. This might be the final season with Jesús Ferreira and Alan Velasco. The club signed Petar Musa to make a leap … and fell far short of expectations, though recent returns under interim coach Peter Luccin have been encouraging.
If Luccin makes the playoffs, he might just land the full-time coaching role. If Dallas make the playoffs, they might just have the firepower to make some noise.
Dallas can’t afford to waste a point, and that means picking up wins at home against top teams like LAFC and Orlando City and also winning away, something they’ve done only once all year.
- STANDINGS: 36 pts (9th) … 2 points above the line … 7 games remaining
- SCHEDULE: @STL, CIN, @SKC, COL, @RSL, @VAN, STL
The Loons have three wins since May 20: bad SKC (not the recent, decent vintage) at home and two dubs against San Jose. They lost six straight from mid-June to early July. Eric Ramsay is integrating new Designated Players and trying to mold the group and the style of play into something he wants to carry forward.
In other words, they’d love to make the playoffs, and might even have the talent to threaten a little once there … but would anyone really be massively surprised if they didn’t quite get it done?
- STANDINGS: 34 pts (11th) … 2 points below the line … 7 games remaining
- SCHEDULE: @TOR, @LAFC, HOU, RSL, @POR, @LA, COL
If you thought Philly had a rough remaining schedule, pour one out for Austin. That slate is probably gonna be too much to overcome, realistically speaking. So yeah, you’d be hard-pressed to find a neutral who expects Austin to jump the line, though Minnesota and Dallas may open the door themselves and let the Verde and Black walk through it.
The real pressure comes in the offseason. What does Rodolfo Borrell want the future of the club to look like? And who joins him in shaping it?
