Our latest matchday is in the books. Onward we trek and in we go:
Of all the early-season disappointments mounting up across the league – Daniel’s form in San Jose; the lack of progress from any of the kids in the Bronx; the lack of a center forward in downtown LA; the KC attackers maybe showing their age; the Chicago Fire just continuing to be – I’d argue Orlando City occupy the top slot.
The Lions entered the 2024 season dreaming of trophies. Three weeks in and they look like a team that’ll need to scrap just to make the Audi MLS Cup Playoffs.
There were warning signs that last year’s 63-point performance was something of a mirage. Duncan McGuire had overperformed his xG substantially for one, and for two, goalkeeper Pedro Gallese had put together what I’d call an under-the-radar career-best season (using American Soccer Analysis’s model, it was the first time he had a G/xG under 1, which means that he was saving more shots than he should’ve).
But mostly it was their lack of chance creation that was the big, bright red flag. And that very obvious thing to fix is why I went into the offseason assuming they would address it in an obvious way: go out and buy the type of No. 10 that could, you know, create chances.
They didn’t. And by not doing that, they have at least temporarily committed themselves to creating chances either on the break (which nobody is letting them do thus far in 2024) or by creating wide overloads with rampaging fullbacks. And they can be very good at that – Orlando became what they were last year when they moved Dagur Dan Thorhallsson, a converted midfielder, to right back in the middle of the season. That gave him license to get forward at will, and adding another passer in that spot unleashed Facundo Torres, which had a knock-on effect for the whole enterprise.
Fullbacks, however, can only get forward effectively if the midfield’s at least competent on the ball. And man was Orlando’s midfield incompetent through the first couple of games. Sporadic possession means more turnovers means lower fullbacks means more on the plate of wingers in low-percentage spots. And that, taken all together, means worse chance creation and fewer goals.
Here’s the good news: Oscar Pareja seems to understand this, and has made some moves to fix it. McGuire, on Saturday night against Minnesota United, started and stayed central, occupying the opposing center backs. Orlando’s wingers started and stayed higher up the pitch, which got rid of the bunching issues that had plagued the team through the first couple of weeks. The front three wasn’t exactly static, but they were more structured than what we’d seen from the Lions over the previous few weeks.
Because of that, the team as a whole generated just shy of four expected goals (nearly the same as their total across all competitions heading into the match) and McGuire scored twice.
The bad news is Gallese continued his shocking 2024 form while the defense fell apart around him. This, coming minutes after McGuire had scored the fastest goal in team history, is a nightmare:
And this, coming at the death…
I’m not going to blame Gallese for that one. That one’s a backline breakdown, a clinic on how to turn an encouraging attacking performance into a devastating 3-2 home loss of the sort that just can not happen to any team expecting to finish above the playoff line. Points in March count just as much as points in September, guys.
“Our coordination was incorrect,” Pareja said about that final goal. “I understand that at that point, when you still have a few minutes and you feel the energy and you know that you can win the game, you still have to do your duty and we did not coordinate well. We lost the first [ball] and the ball got into our right back and center back in a way that – we have to have the tools to control that. That’s part of the big thing and problems we have right now.”
I actually think that’s a useful framing for understanding Orlando City’s issues right now: they have the tools to control high-leverage situations and are not applying them. Some of this is individual form (Gallese’s inability to control his penalty area so far this season), but more of it is positional indiscipline. Last week that manifested itself with winger Martín Ojeda dropping into his center backs’ laps to pick up the ball off of them. That got fixed, but this week was replaced with the backline being tuned out and raggedy during the most crucial moment of the match.
“Yeah, I think to start off the word that comes to mind is sadness, right? We did everything, we created a lot of chances at goal, we scored goals,” Ojeda said in the postgame presser. “But, at the end of the day, football is a game of details, right? And those details tonight were costly for us. But I think moving forward, this team will continue to get better and to focus on those details, so it doesn’t hurt us in the future.”
They have to or they’ll continue to be the league’s biggest disappointment.
Minnesota, meanwhile, are on the complete other end of that spectrum, and stayed there despite what I felt was a pretty poor performance (their first of the season). But they are getting healthier – Teemu Pukki had a brace, Bongi Hlongwane had the winner and Kervin Arriaga played the final 36 minutes – and are getting contributions from guys who probably weren’t expected to figure too prominently heading into the season (Tani Oluwaseyi has 1g/2a in 87 minutes so far).
New head coach Eric Ramsay is expected to take over this coming week. Emanuel Reynoso should be back not long after that. Get your Loons stock now.
Here are the postgame remarks of New York City FC midfielder Keaton Parks, as reported by the Blue Balls NYCFC Podcast:
“I think we have a lot of young guys that don't know how to play for results. … We need to grind out [expletive] results and not just bask in one-goal leads and [expletive].”
Yeah… it was that kind of match for the Pigeons on Saturday afternoon, in which they got a 1-0 lead early and turned it into a 2-1 loss very, very late against the visiting Portland Timbers. NYCFC are one of just three pointless teams – no wins, no draws and three losses in three games. Santiago Rodríguez’s 10th-minute goal in this one is the only time they’ve scored all season.
Here’s the story in two graphs. First, possession in five-minute intervals:
That’s NYCFC coming out of the gates with more of the ball, which they used to take the early lead. By the 25th minute, however, it’s the Timbers who are getting more of the ball, tilting the field and beginning to control the game.
For some teams that’s ok. Nashville, for example, love it when they take an early lead, because they will always trade field position and ball possession for room to counterattack. The more of the ball you have, the more dangerous they become. It’s hard-wired into their DNA.
NYCFC have never been built like that. And you can see it in our second graph, which is the Attacking Momentum chart provided by Sofascore using Opta data:
(Confusingly it is NYCFC represented by the green bars and Portland represented by the blue bars).
There is no counterattacking threat here. As NYCFC give up more of the ball they get less and less dangerous, while being more and more vulnerable. Head coach Nick Cushing compounded this by taking an attacker off for a third deep-lying midfielder with 23 minutes to go.
Here are Cushing’s words on the decision to make that sub.
“We weren't intense enough in those moments, especially when the ball's coming into the midfield with Keaton Parks and Andrés Perea,” Cushing said and, uh, yeah – that’s the manager and the starting central midfielder, one of the longest-serving guys on the team, sniping at each other in the press. “That's why we put Justin Haak in, just to get more competition, get more competitive in the middle of the field, because I actually don't think the game was overly tactical.
“I think when we pushed them back and put them under pressure, they kicked the ball long. But when we sat and we weren't aggressive and we were a little bit passive, they played through us and we're not at our best when we do that. You can see in the first and the second half we're not a team that plays passive and waits and plays on counterattack. We don't do that very well.”
As mentioned above, he’s definitely right about that last part. But as the momentum graph shows, it was basically all Timbers all the time in the second half. Including and maybe especially after the sub.
I’m not going to say the two goals at the end were inevitable – I thought the Pigeons would hold on for a point – but they weren’t at all undeserved.
Cushing has now been in charge for 67 games. NYCFC are collecting 1.20 ppg during that span, which is significantly lower than any of the three previous head coaches in the Bronx, and a pretty substantial disappointment given the outlay across the last two transfer windows.
Portland’s outlay has been nothing close to what NYCFC have spent, but they haven’t much needed it so far as they’ve got seven points and eight goals through three games. Even so, help is on the way as they’re reportedly putting the finishing touches on a deal to purchase center forward Jonathan “Cabecita” Rodriguez from Liga MX giants Club América.
11. Atlanta took 45 minutes to shake off the rust before beating the brakes off what was clearly an exhausted New England side during a 4-1 final in Atlanta on Saturday afternoon. Thiago Almada was good; Giorgos Giakoumakis was great, and it seems like he’s going to be around for a long while.
New England have yet to collect a point in league play this year and have conceded eight goals through three games. The delta between their league form and Concacaf Champions Cup form is significant.
10. The game-winner in Toronto FC’s 1-0 win over Charlotte FC came courtesy of Lorenzo Insigne – who was allowed to shoot from the spot where he should never be allowed to – but the Pass of the Week came via TFC’s other DP, Federico Bernardeschi.
The Reds were not particularly great, especially on the attack (they desperately need a reliable center forward – Prince Owusu peeling back for a lay-off instead of getting inside his defender at the corner of the six-yard box in the above sequence is a perfect example of what they’re missing), but when you have two high-level DPs, and both those guys are bought in, you can win yourself some games that otherwise would’ve ended in a draw. And they’ve now pulled it off two weeks running.
“I thought they put a shift in, again,” new manager John Herdman said of the Italians. “And our quality came through, and we have got that quality, and to do well in MLS, you need your DPs performing at that level.”
9. For a team where that’s not happening with the DPs let’s turn to Chicago, where the Fire came away 2-1 losers after a late Mo Farsi goal in Columbus:
Xherdan Shaqiri has three key passes in three games. New No. 9 Hugo Cuypers has just five shots. The Fire are 0W-2L-1D.
Columbus weren’t great, and I suspect Wilfried Nancy’s going to let his team hear about that. They went up 1-0 in the 68th minute then almost immediately conceded an equalizer. They went up 2-1 10 minutes into stoppage time and came very, very close to dropping points anyway, but were saved by two timely blocks by Aidan Morris.
Those late moments in the Tactics Free Zone remain this team’s Achilles’ heel. It’s not always fatal – they won last year’s MLS Cup presented by Audi, after all – but they’re still more vulnerable than I think Nancy would like.
8. Also vulnerable in the Tactics Free Zone are Austin, who looked to have their first win of the year wrapped up but conceded late to Célio Pompeu for what became a 2-2 draw against visiting St. Louis.
It was not an undeserved equalizer, as the visitors had the better of the play throughout. But Austin got two on set pieces, and goals change games.
“We were by far the better team. I think we had a lot of chances,” said St. Louis midfielder Eduard Löwen afterwards. “We concede two easy set-piece goals, which disappoints us because that's not who we are. Usually, we defend set pieces very well. We always get the first contact, and then we got caught sleeping twice.”
That is basically the story of it.
7. I’m turning the next two paragraphs over to Calen Carr, who was in Harrison for RBNY’s 2-1 win over visiting FC Dallas:
Walking into a soaked Red Bull Arena is probably the worst place to be if you’re still trying to figure out a new system. That’s what it looked like from FC Dallas, who have shifted to a three-back system without first-choice CBs or No. 6s to build out with. Club-record signing Petar Musa was mostly invisible up top and looks dependent on service to make a difference. With no preseason and it being his first match starting alongside a not-fully-fit Jesús Ferreira, it’s going to take some time for them to click.
Sandro Schwarz switched Red Bull from their traditional 4-2-2-2 to a 4-2-3-1 to place Emil Forsberg as the 10. He had a dream home debut with a penalty goal and an assist, combining well throughout the match with a left side of John Tolkin and Lewis Morgan, who had the better of a weakened right side for FC Dallas. While Red Bull showed more possession last week in Houston, this was a return to what we’ve seen from them in the past. Schwarz told me during the week he wanted them to improve in transition moments and got it with both goals. Red Bull still need a high-end No. 9 and more balance on that right side, but there’s a real reason to be excited, Forsberg being the biggest.
I (hello, this is Doyle again) am excited to see what could happen up that left side for RBNY if Tolkin and Morgan stay fit. I also quite like the idea of rolling the 4-2-3-1 out more often, even when Dante Vanzeir gets back to fitness.
6. So a couple of things from Cole Bassett’s game-winner in Colorado’s kind of shocking 2-1 Rocky Mountain Cup win at RSL (seriously, RSL have owned this rivalry almost completely for 15+ years now and this result is stunning):
First, note Colorado’s shape at the start of RSL’s build, with their right winger defending out wide and right back Keegan Rosenberry tucking inside to A) protect the half-spaces, and B) win second balls from knockdowns. I don’t think RSL ever quite solved that.
Second, that turn from Jasper Löffelsend midway through the clip to start the whole thing… that’s just so good.
Third, Bassett does a great job of changing speeds at the start of his dribble to create separation, and then just a good a job of driving at the defense long enough to force the RSL fullback to collapse inside and leave the left channel wide open for the slip pass to Calvin Harris.
And fourth is Bassett keeps his run going, which means he’s Johnny on the spot for the rebound. Everyone should do this. Lionel Messi has scored 850-ish goals, all told, for club and country, and my guess is about half of those have come because he just keeps moving toward the six-yard box after releasing a pass.
It’s fundamental. It’s how you win games. Even for the Rapids.
5. Sporting KC went to LA and got themselves a very nice point thanks to a scoreless draw. The key: they allowed just one chance on the break all night, which came after a botched short corner-kick routine in the 54th minute.
The book is out on the Black & Gold, by the way. The Sounders gave them five transition opportunities in Matchday 2. RSL didn’t allow them any last week, and Sporting gave them just the one this weekend.
LAFC are going to have to become familiar with the ball once again in the weeks and months to come.
4. I am confused as to why Vancouver have moved away from the 3-1-4-2 shape, with Andrés Cubas as a single pivot and Ryan Gauld partnering Brian White up top, which was so successful for them last year. They’ve come out this season playing what functions much more like a 3-4-3 with Pedro Vite in a double pivot with Cubas, Gauld on the left wing, White as a sort of wide forward/off-ball winger on the right and Damir Kreilach as something of a false 9 up top.
They basically didn’t threaten until Fafa Picault (a true winger) came on for Kreilach with White shifting to center forward, and even after that it didn’t look… good. Gauld completed just two passes to White all night, Vite has been ineffective in his deeper role, and through two games they’re now 28th in xG. Last year they were fourth.
Still, it was good enough to get a 2-0 win down in San Jose thanks to a set-piece goal by Alessandro Schöpf and an Ali Ahmed rocket when the Quakes’ backline fell asleep.
San Jose, with three losses and just two goals from three matches, look to be in real trouble.
3. As expected, D.C.’s torrid attacking pace from the first few matchdays regressed, as they were held to just 0.55 xG in a scoreless draw at FC Cincinnati. But given they were without both Christian Benteke and Ted Ku-DiPietro, the defense held up and goalkeeper Alex Bono continues to look like the guy who’s going to keep the No. 1 kit, I doubt Troy Lesesne will complain too much.
Two other notes from D.C.’s perspective:
- In Jackson Hopkins, Matai Akinmboni, Kristian Fletcher and Jacob Murrell, D.C. fielded four locally produced teenagers in this one (Hopkins started while the other three finished).
- I thought it was interesting that Murrell, who’s a true No. 9, came on and played underneath Fletcher and Cristian Dájome, two winger-types masquerading as pressing center forwards. Seemed a little galaxy-brained to me because I thought Murrell was dangerous any time he got on the ball in/near the box, but sloppy the few times he was asked to make the game in midfield.
As for Cincy, they look like a team heavy-legged from CCC play and still trying to get their feet after seeing five starters depart following last season. That said, they had their chances, and I think their overall performance bodes well for them figuring it all out sooner rather than later.
2. Ten minutes into the second half, it felt like Nashville were destined to get themselves a 1-0 smash-and-grab at home with a fully rotated squad against the Galaxy. Four minutes after that, Dru Yearwood made it 2-0 and it felt like the curtain would ring down on three very good points for the ‘Yotes.
But this year’s Galaxy side really does seem to be built differently. They’re certainly not above shooting themselves in the foot – that’s how they got down 2-0 in the first place – but they just kept working their attacking patterns, mostly kept their defensive shape, and clawed back into the game with a Riqui Puig goal in the 67th minute. And then eight minutes from time, Dejan Joveljic got the equalizer by one-timing home Julián Aude’s pullback.
The Galaxy, in this game, looked more like what I think they’ll be throughout the year: over 60% possession, nearly 90% pass completion rate, and a huge chunk of passes in the opposing half. By and large that’s what they want to do, and within that framework, I thought they did a good job of not settling for crosses, but instead working the ball to create real chances.
Nashville were not as airtight as they usually are with a lead, which has to concern manager Gary Smith. He did a predictably good job of getting his team organized against the ball, and I thought going to a 3-5-2 to stretch the field horizontally was a smart call (it paid dividends on both goals).
But his team’s not defending well within the box so far this year. It’s a major concern heading forward, and one that’s grown larger with Walker Zimmerman having picked up a knock.
1. And finally our Face of the Week goes to Matías Cóccaro, who can’t believe he didn’t open the scoring on Sunday evening in Fort Lauderdale:
I put the whole clip in there, but really, it’s all about that still frame.
The good news for Montréal is they scored on the subsequent corner – their first of two set-piece goals on the day, with Cóccaro getting the second – and then added a third on the break for a 3-2 win against the Messi-less Herons.
The goals were all great, but my favorite moments from Montréal were when they showed some of what I hope is their future with on-ball sequences like this:
There hasn’t been a ton of that from Laurent Courtois’ men thus far, as the new manager has mostly had his team playing against the ball and hitting opportunistically. And with seven points through three road games, I can’t possibly blame him for that. They’re perched atop the league on 2.33 PPG when, a year ago at this point, they were halfway dead and buried.
Miami are neither of those things, but they roundly failed their first full-rotation test. There was a lack of urgency in their game until, and even after they went down 1-0; there was a lack of toughness on set pieces; there was a lack of precision with the ball when chasing a result.
They probably have the talent, even when Messi’s resting, to survive any one of those things. Maybe even any two.
But not all three. Not even at home against a travel-weary, out-manned side.
It’s a weird lesson for a team with so many guys fighting for minutes to have to learn, but it’s clearly what Miami are going to be working on in the days and weeks to come.
