Is it early in the season? Yes. Are teams across the league still finding their legs? Yes. But is the sample size big enough to feel confident about at least a handful of developments from around MLS? I think so.
We should still hold off on making sweeping generalizations about teams or players based on seven matchdays worth of information. But it’s not too early to dive into the data (and the film) to dig up some curious early-season trends. From quicker-than-expected improvement to changing identities, we’re sinking our teeth into five of the most surprising narratives around MLS.
Let’s get to it… and yes there are others, mainly St. Louis!
Wilfried Nancy's team looks legit
Maybe there are some folks out there who foresaw the Columbus Crew turning into a legitimate player in the Eastern Conference just a couple of months into Wilfried Nancy’s takeover. I, dear reader, was not one of those people.
The Crew have already adopted Nancy’s flexible 3-4-3 shape and buildup-heavy principles, earning some strong results through seven games. They’re currently sitting in fourth place in the East and are averaging just under two points per game. Now, I do need to add a caveat here: Columbus’ schedule has been fairly weak over the last few weeks (which is when they’ve really turned on the jets with 12 goals in three games). But this team has the bones of a competitive force – and they’ve been doing this without star striker Cucho Hernández.
According to FBref, the Crew are second in the East and fifth in all of MLS based on xG differential per 90 minutes. Though their numbers will cool off as they face a string of more challenging opponents, Nancy’s group creates chances and denies their opponents chances at an impressive rate. It’s not just the end product that has been strong in Columbus so far (and again, there will almost certainly be some leveling out). No, it’s the fact the Crew are leaning into Nancy’s tactical approach. Per Opta, Columbus are seventh in the league in average sequence time and are fifth in the league in buildup attacks, which they define as open-play sequences that contain 10+ passes that end in a shot or a box entry.
Something is cooking in Columbus – and it’s cooking faster than I thought it would.
Willy Agada's goals dry up
Willy Agada was an absolute madman last year. Joining Sporting Kansas City from the Israeli Premier League last summer, Agada finished 2022 with eight goals in 12 games. He finished the season in the 98th percentile among forwards in MLS for non-penalty goals per 90 and in the 99th percentile for non-penalty xG per 90, per FBref. The Nigerian striker found dangerous spots, SKC found him in those dangerous spots, and fans found some joy in a team that was expected to climb back up the Western Conference table after a down year.
Basically none of the things that made SKC so fun in the home stretch last year have been repeated this year. Agada has just one goal in seven games. He’s averaging 0.19 non-penalty xG per 90 minutes, rather than 0.71. And Sporting Kansas City? Well, they’re down at the bottom of the West with just three points through seven games.
Sure, Peter Vermes’ team has dealt with a slew of injuries – and we should expect this group to elevate their performances as the season continues. But on the whole, they’ve struggled. Per TruMedia via Stats Perform, SKC are taking 30 more touches in the final third per 90 minutes this year than last year. Those touches, however, aren’t turning into high-quality chances: their xG is down from 1.15 per 90 to 0.96. Yikes.
SKC should bounce back, at least to an extent, but they’re simply not getting quality production out of Agada and the rest of their attack. Maybe Alan Pulido’s return, and Gadi Kinda’s eventual return, can change that.
No Reynoso? Things are still stable
Let’s get this out of the way up front: I don’t believe Minnesota United’s ceiling is particularly high without Emanuel Reynoso. Their star No. 10 and Designated Player has yet to join up with the team in 2023 and is currently suspended.
But, while their ceiling might not be all that high without the sun to direct their heliocentric attack, Minnesota’s floor is sitting squarely at “we’re fully capable of hanging in games and making your life miserable” levels. And you know what, in this league? That can take you places.
Looking at Minnesota United’s xG differential from last year to this year, things have actually improved ever-so-slightly for Adrian Heath and Co. So far in 2023, Minnesota’s xGD per 90 is sitting at -0.07, according to FBref. Last year, the Loons finished with -0.09 xGD per 90. That’s not a meaningful improvement, but it also doesn’t reflect the massive drop-off that many thought might come when it became clear that Reynoso wasn’t going to be with the team.
Minnesota United are registering more defensive actions per 90 minutes in their own defensive third this year than they did last year, per TruMedia, and they’re playing almost 20 more forward passes per game this year than last. It's all coming with Robin Lod mainly playing as a No. 10, showing his versatility.
It’s clear that Heath wants this team to be even more direct in the absence of Reynoso, and so far it’s working.
Montréal lose talent and don’t gain an identity
What is Hernan Losada’s CF Montréal team? With Djordje Mihailovic, Alistair Johnston, Ismaël Koné, Joaquín Torres, and Kei Kamara all leaving over the last several months, this team suffered a major talent exodus after last season’s second-place finish in the East. Critically, they also lost Nancy. In his place, Losada has come in and done…well, I’m not sure what, exactly.
At his last job of leading D.C. United, Losada was known for an aggressive, pressing style that helped elevate D.C. into more than the sum of their parts. In Montréal, Losada has abandoned any attempts to press. According to Opta, CF Montréal allow more passes per defensive action than any team in MLS. More than Nashville SC. More than Minnesota United. More than Real Salt Lake. Nobody in this league is more passive defensively than Montréal.
When you look at Montréal’s core players, I’m not sure that being passive defensively is a bad idea. Rudy Camacho, Victor Wanyama, and Romell Quioto are all on the wrong side of 30. Sam Piette is 28. They don’t have as much speed in central areas as Losada would probably like to implement a front-foot, pressing approach. That said, their current approach of not applying pressure to the ball isn’t working. Montréal have allowed more non-penalty xG per 90 (2.1) than any team in MLS, according to FBref. They also have a league-worst negative-13 goal differential.
There’s time for them to turn things around, but it’s clear Montréal lost a bunch of talent and didn’t gain enough during the offseason.
Houston Dynamo find their footing
The Houston Dynamo were bad last year.
They finished second-to-last in the Western Conference and ended the season with one of the worst xG differentials in the entire league (-0.38). This year, though, Houston are on the up! The Ben Olsen era hasn’t been blindly brilliant by any stretch of the imagination, but it has been absolutely competitive and, at times, effective. So far in 2023, the Dynamo’s xGD is up to -0.08 per 90, according to FBref.
There are several factors behind Houston’s improvement, but easily the most fun of the bunch has been Héctor Herrera’s performances in the Dynamo’s newfound possession-heavy tactical approach. Houston are in the top five in MLS in average sequence time and passes per sequence this year. Those longer possession spells are giving Herrera more time to put in work in central midfield. According to American Soccer Analysis, Herrera is sixth in all of MLS in total goals added this year. He’s still a net negative defensively, but the Mexican star’s ball progression, creativity and goal-threat are all elite.
Herrera and the Dynamo look energized right now. They probably won’t be world-beaters in the West, but Houston have certainly taken a step forward from last year to this one during Olsen’s first year at the helm.
