Armchair Analyst: Matt Doyle

Thoughts & Numbers: What I'm watching for in MLS Matchday 28

Doyle - Thoughts & Numbers - MD28

Matthew Doyle

We’re back into the regular-season grind, so let’s get back into our usual column flow. Here’s this week’s number-influenced thoughts for a full, 14-game, weekend slate.

In we go:

Atlanta United vs. Nashville SC

Gary Smith put forth a tactical masterclass in the Leagues Cup, constantly changing his team’s shape, line of confrontation, pressing triggers and even principles of play.

For example, Nashville are among the league leaders in both total long balls and long balls hit as a percentage of total passes played, and yet look at this press break:

There was a lot of that in the games against Club América, Monterrey and Inter Miami, especially in the second half. The ‘Yotes didn’t get the trophy, but this is a team that knows what they’re about and how to change up who they are and what they do based upon what’s being given to them.

Atlanta are on the other side of that spectrum as, despite the roster’s all-around talent, they are poor at building from the back. American Soccer Analysis’s all-in-one goals added metric has the Five Stripes 27th in the league in terms of value added from passes in their own defensive third.

Charlotte FC vs. LAFC

Sticking with ASA, their numbers confirm the eye test for Charlotte: The defense does not do a good job of stopping teams from completing valuable passes in the attacking third (Charlotte’s defensive third). They are 23rd in the league per G+.

That looks like it’ll be a problem against an LAFC team that is in the top 10 of virtually all of ASA’s advanced metrics in the final third, but most importantly receiving (they get into good spots) and shooting (they don’t squander chances).

FC Cincinnati vs. NYCFC

The lack of chemistry in Cincy’s front three of Brandon Vazquez, Aaron Boupendza and Luciano Acosta was pretty glaring in last week’s Hell is Real loss. Vazquez (52.9% pass completion) and Boupendza (57.1%) in particular couldn’t get on the same page.

The Pigeons, meanwhile, were instantly on the same page as soon as Maxi Moralez stepped back on the pitch last weekend. He was his typical self, logging 6.74 miles and completing 91% of his 56 open-play passes (both courtesy of MLS Advanced Stats, and both game highs).

Of course, that doesn’t matter too much if the front line still can’t finish.

Columbus Crew vs. Toronto FC

The Crew, as per TruMedia by StatsPerform, lead the league by a mile in both dribbles attempted (642; the Quakes are second with 541) and dribbles completed (338, which is 60 more than the second-place Quakes).

What makes the Crew stand out is so much of this comes from the backline. This is all part of Wilfried Nancy’s game plan, as he demands comfort and courage on the ball from his center backs. Hence, you get a lineup with three guys who are converted either from midfield (Sean Zawadzki) or fullback (Steven Moreira, Malte Amundsen) in the middle of that massive backline. Nancy wants them to invite pressure upfield and then beat the pressing attackers with the ball, and it worked perfectly last week.

That’s bad news for a TFC side that neither presses well nor counters well. They are near the bottom of the table in both of those metrics, and basically every other metric as well.

D.C. United vs. Philadelphia Union

D.C. are still a Route 1 team, and Christian Benteke keeps holding up his end of the bargain – he leads the league in aerials contested this year (276; only one player, RBNY center back Sean Nealis, is within 120 of that number) and in aerials won (182; Nealis is second with 118 and nobody else has more than 84).

The Union tried to handle that in the Leagues Cup by bracketing Benteke with three center backs, and it didn’t go great for Philly. I’d expect a return to the 4-4-2 diamond.

CF Montréal vs. New England Revolution

Djordje Petrovic is probably the best goalkeeper I’ve ever seen in MLS, and by the numbers, he’s the best pure shot-stopper in the world:

Over the past two seasons in MLS, Petrovic’s goals-xG per 96 is -0.34, which means replacing him with an average goalkeeper would cost New England a third of a goal per game (assuming all other variables hold).

The Revs hit back-to-back home runs with him and Matt Turner. They probably need to go yard again if they’re going to stay an MLS Cup threat.

Montréal’s Jonathan Sirois is in that “average goalkeeper” range, with a per 96 g-xG of +0.08. To be clear: That is a very good number for a 22-year-old. The 23-year-old Petrovic is just a freak.

New York Red Bulls vs. Inter Miami CF

Speaking of freaks, even by his own standards what Lionel Messi pulled off in the Leagues Cup is unsustainable:

The Herons will need to start generating more box looks if they’re going to pull off an improbable (it’s still improbable, folks) push to the Audi MLS Cup Playoffs down the stretch here.

Of course, the fact RBNY are below the playoff line is almost as improbable as Messi’s finishing display, though for the opposite reason: It’s hard to be as bad in front of net as the Red Bulls have been this season.

  • In ASA’s database, which goes back to 2013, the 2023 Red Bulls are 16th-best in expected goal differential per game (+0.47, which is just off the +0.50 pace of the 2018 Shield-winning RBNY side).
  • In that same database, this RBNY group are ninth-worst in goal differential-xGD per game at -0.51.

That’s the mathematical way of saying their game model still works, but their forwards don’t.

Orlando City SC vs. St. Louis CITY SC

The forwards for both Orlando and St. Louis are working just fine, thank you very much. Duncan McGuire’s overperforming a bit – as per FBRef he’s in the 99th percentile of non-penalty goals, while “just” the 75th percentile of non-penalty expected goals – but he’s also learned a lot about collecting the attention of opposing center backs in order to open up space for his teammates, as we saw in the Lions’ big 3-1 win in Chicago last weekend.

St. Louis, meanwhile, are the opposite of the Red Bulls despite strikingly similar game models: They’re overperforming their expected goals differential, as per ASA, by 0.62 goals per game. That’s seventh-best in the ASA database.

FC Dallas vs. Austin FC

Austin’s 2022 season was fifth in that database with an overperformance of 0.65 goals per game, so new general manager Rodolfo Borrell was correct when he said last year’s pace was unsustainable. It’s thus not a surprise to see them crashing back down to earth.

What is a bit of a surprise is Dallas haven’t built upon last year’s strong showing, as they’re entering the stretch run fighting for their playoff lives. But I think they hit on something in that 4-4-2 Leagues Cup belter vs. Miami by inverting the midfield triangle to play Alan Velasco as a No. 10 in front of a double pivot. It led to Dallas having a season-low 33.4% possession on the day, but they were able to get into transition quite a bit and generated a ton of good looks.

Sporting Kansas City vs. San Jose Earthquakes

So much of what Sporting have done well this year has gone through left winger Dániel Sallói. As per FBRef, he leads the team with 97 progressive carries (third in the league) and 229 progressive passes received (that’s second in the league).

The guy lining up across from him, San Jose right winger Cristian Espinoza, is second with 98 carries and first with 242 progressive passes received.

Sporting’s left vs. San Jose’s right is where this one is likely to unfold.

Real Salt Lake vs. Houston Dynamo FC

How RSL cope without Pablo Ruiz is one of the huge variables for the stretch run out West. Ruiz doesn’t get on the board a ton, though when he does, it’s memorable:

What he does do a ton is switch the field of play to create overloads for RSL’s wide midfielders and overlapping fullbacks. Nobody hits more switches in MLS (as per TruMedia), and however Pablo Mastroeni tries to replace his regista, it’s a dead certainty RSL are going to have to adjust their game model somewhat.

Houston’s game model calls for lots of passes from their No. 8s, and when you’ve got 8s who can pass like this, why not?

LA Galaxy vs. Chicago Fire FC

The Galaxy are roughly just as cursed in front of goal as RBNY. The Red Bulls, remember, are having the ninth-worst finishing season in the ASA database at -0.51 GD-xGD per game. The Galaxy are 11th-worst at -0.50.

They’ll likely be facing off against Fire homegrown goalkeeper Chris Brady, who has been spectacular this year. The 19-year-old’s G-xG is -0.15/96, which is fifth in the league this year.

For context, Gaga Slonina’s number last year was dead even. The Fire have become a goalkeeper factory.

Portland Timbers vs. Vancouver Whitecaps FC

This chart tells part of the story about what went wrong in Portland this season:

Doyle - Thoughts Numbers - POR embed

That means either Evander isn’t a No. 10, or that he’s a No. 10 who’s surrounded by such static movement that he’s running out of ideas and is just letting fly. It’s not great, and whoever takes over from Gio Savarese full-time has to figure out how to get more productivity in the final third.

The ‘Caps don’t have that problem – their playmaker, Ryan Gauld, is sixth in the league in expected assists and their 38 goals as a collective is second in the West. The problem they do have is this game kicks off a stretch of seven straight on the road, and Vancouver are not good away from BC Place, at just 1W-5L-3D away from home this season.

Minnesota United FC vs. Seattle Sounders FC

Emanuel Reynoso is back, not just in that he returned to the US after a prolonged offseason in Argentina, but in that he is back to his absolutely electric best. He is second behind Douglas Costa (!!!) in xA/96 among all players who’ve gotten on the field for at least 600 minutes in regular-season play. And he was freaking awesome in the Leagues Cup.

As for Seattle, here’s what I believe until they give me ample enough reason not to: They’ve played well for most of the season, and the underlying numbers love them (ASA’s expected points model has them atop the league). They’ve just been hammered by injuries, age and finishing variance.

But now as we enter the stretch run and approach what looks like the end of an era – I will be very, very surprised if Nico Lodeiro and Raúl Ruidíaz are back next year, and those might not be the only big changes – I suspect that this veteran side will lock in and start performing with a level of urgency that’s mostly been lacking this year.

Maybe it won’t happen this weekend, but sometime soon this prolonged slump is going to end. And Seattle’s immortals will get one last shot at one more trophy.

Matthew Doyle -
@MattDoyle76
Armchair Analyst: Matt Doyle

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