Armchair Analyst: Matt Doyle

Thoughts & Numbers: What I'm watching for in MLS Matchday 29

Doyle Thoughts & Numbers 8.29

Matthew Doyle

Midweek MLS means a quick turnaround, so we’ll keep this column brief. As always, this data comes from TruMedia via StatsPerform unless otherwise noted.

In we go:

Atlanta United vs. FC Cincinnati

This network passing graph from Atlanta’s 4-0 win over Nashville last weekend tells me one gigantic thing:

ATL 8.29.23

It tells me the deep-lying midfield did such a good job that Thiago Almada (No. 10) got to release early and play higher as a true attacker rather than having to drop deep and orchestrate. There’s been too little of that this season.

His opposite number, Lucho Acosta, has found the right balance between both of those job functions.

Charlotte FC vs. Orlando City SC

It was “playmaker by committee” for Charlotte last week, as they generated 15 shots at 1.8 xG in their 2-1 win over LAFC, but nobody in Christian Lattanzio’s 4-3-3 had more than two key passes (a pass that leads to a shot). This is by design – spreading the wealth is one of the ideas underpinning positional play.

Orlando, meanwhile, are spreading the wealth with their finishing, as they’ve got nine goals with six different goalscorers over their past four games in all competitions. In particular, they’ve done a better job of getting their deep-lying midfielders involved in the final third with late-arriving runs.

Inter Miami CF vs. Nashville SC

Didn’t have to wait long for a rematch of that epic Leagues Cup Final. To put into context how the two great No. 10s – reigning Landon Donovan MLS MVP Hany Mukhtar and GOAT Leo Messi – are different in their roles, Mukhtar had just one pass into the final third in that game, while Messi (always one to drop deep and orchestrate) had eight.

This doesn’t mean Nashville were ineffective in attack. They just ask more from other players, in this case the double pivot of Aníbal Godoy (11 passes into the final third) and Dax McCarty (six before being subbed out in the 70th minute).

New England Revolution vs. New York Red Bulls

With the Revs’ attack in flux via injuries and underperformance, they’ve been asking more of Carles Gil as a goalscorer. He’s taking a career-high 2.32 shots per 96 this year as per American Soccer Analysis, which is more than 10% higher than his previous record. His playmaking hasn’t dropped off, though, as he’s still averaging 0.32 xA per 96, which is the second-best mark of his MLS career thus far.

To nobody’s surprise, the Red Bulls have the lowest “big chance” conversion percentage (big chances are ones that Opta reckons should be scored) in the league this year at just 26.19%.

That is the entire story of their season.

NYCFC vs. CF Montréal

NYCFC, like their next-door neighbors in Harrison, are in danger of missing the Audi MLS Cup Playoffs for the first time in a long time. While the main focus has rightly been on the final third (early returns suggest Mounsef Bakrar is not, in fact, going to be an adequate Taty Castellanos replacement), ASA’s all-in-one goals added metric says to take a look at central midfield as well. To wit:

  • In 2021 NYCFC were a league-best +0.22 G+ in the middle third.
  • In 2022 NYCFC are a still very good but not overwhelming +0.15 G+ in the middle third.
  • In 2023 NYCFC are a pedestrian +0.02 G+ in the middle third.

I think this is primarily a knock-on effect of not having Taty to pull the opposing defenses around. That downgrade at center forward has been significant.

Montréal, meanwhile, have upgraded with the addition of Kwadwo Opoku at that spot. He’s not putting the ball into the net much, but by the numbers he’s one of the very best defensive forwards in MLS, whether he’s playing in a front two or a front three.

Toronto FC vs. Philadelphia Union

The Union got the diamond midfield working well last weekend without Ale Bedoya in the starting lineup, which is a constant challenge for them. Jack McGlynn had a season-high three shots, one of which turned into the game-winning goal, and Jesús Bueno was vertical and energetic in his 63 minutes before being replaced by Bedoya.

Toronto are… well, they’re struggling. That 2-0 loss last weekend was worse than it looked, as they were outshot 17-3 in the first half and could’ve been down 4-0 but for some heroics from Tomás Romero (and some wayward finishing from the Crew). The Reds have lost 10 straight in all competitions.

Austin FC vs. Seattle Sounders FC

Sebastián Driussi in 2022: 22 goals on 14.39 xG, as per ASA.

Sebastián Driussi in 2023: 7 goals on 7.51 xG as per ASA.

So he went from overperforming by a massive amount to just fractionally underperforming. Austin fans should not blame their No. 10, in other words.

The Sounders, meanwhile, are underperforming their xG as a collective by -4.51 goals on the season. Since May 1, that number jumps to -8.11.

I’m still not concerned. Raúl Ruidíaz will remember where the goal is eventually.

Chicago Fire FC vs. Vancouver Whitecaps FC

The Fire conceded two more set-piece goals (a free kick and a PK) on the weekend and have now allowed 15 this year, tied with Inter Miami for league-worst. They are a mess in their own box, and only some fantastic (and weirdly underrated) work from young Chris Brady has kept them afloat.

The ‘Caps are, by the underlying numbers, one of the best teams in the league with an expected goals differential of +9.77 as per ASA. And they kicked off this massive seven-game road trip in style with a 3-2 win in Portland last weekend.

Houston Dynamo FC vs. Columbus Crew

Corey Baird’s xG+xA per 96 as per ASA, from the start of the season to June 1, was 0.15. Since then he’s bumped it up by 250% to 0.37.

Yes, the guy’s on a hot streak. But that hot streak has been born of better movement off the ball by him and better chemistry with the ball by the guys behind him. He’s now up to 10g/6a across all competitions, which are both career highs.

The Crew now lead MLS is possession and are second in touches and chances created. They’re also first in secondary assists despite not having what I would consider any traditional pass-before-the-pass monsters like Héctor Herrera, who they’ll be lining up across from in this one.

Minnesota United FC vs. Colorado Rapids

Columbus are “fourth” in expected assists. Know who’s first? Minnesota United! Bet you didn’t see that one coming.

Colorado are 26th in that particular stat. I do think a lot of folks would’ve seen that coming.

St. Louis CITY SC vs. FC Dallas

St. Louis have an ideology and you can see it in the numbers as clearly as you can see it on the field: They play Energy Drink Soccer. The most telling stat is they have had 239 possessions that started in the attacking third, second in the league behind – you guessed it – the Red Bulls.

Dallas are 26th in that stat, with just 150. Their game model is the polar opposite of Energy Drink Soccer, with an emphasis on pitch control with the ball.

Portland Timbers vs. Real Salt Lake

Portland, despite not pressing much, are 27th in passes per possession – ahead of just St. Louis and RBNY – registering 2.7. It has not been a good year for the Timbers, who need all three in this one to keep their faint and fading playoff hopes alive.

RSL have a little more padding but they need to 1) fix their rest defense, and 2) be smarter about how and where they lose possession. To that end, a league-high 48% of their shots come from outside the box. That leads to some bangers, but it can/does also lead to blocked shots, which are essentially turnovers that give teams a chance to counterattack.

San Jose Earthquakes vs. LA Galaxy

The Quakes are above the playoff line but their attack – specifically their chance creation – has gone MIA. It’s taking a toll in the boxscore, obviously, and the underlying numbers paint a stark picture as center forward Jeremy Ebobisse has seen his xG/96 cut in half from nearly a career-best 0.48 last year to a career-worst 0.24 this year.

LA are 4W-1L-4D in their last nine regular-season games dating back to June 1. The biggest difference is the play of Douglas “Contract Year” Costa, who’s been awesome since getting fit and into the lineup on June 8.

Matthew Doyle -
@MattDoyle76
Armchair Analyst: Matt Doyle Matchday

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