Armchair Analyst: Matt Doyle

Thoughts & Numbers: What I'm watching for in MLS Matchday 7

Doyle 4.6.23

Matthew Doyle

It’s not just your imagination: scoring is down a bunch in 2023. As a matter of fact, goals per game is down at a record low of 2.45, which is just a tick under the all-time record set back in 2010 of 2.46 goals per game.

Last year the league clocked in at 2.96 goals per game, which is one of the highest-scoring seasons we’ve ever recorded.

My working theory – well, the theory Andrew Wiebe, Calen Carr and I worked out on Thursday’s Extratime episode – is it comes down to 1) set pieces (there have been 16 fewer set-piece goals at this point in 2023 than there were at the same point in the season last year), and 2) the bad teams being less disastrously bad from a defensive perspective than they were to start the year last year.

It’s not just goals, by the way. The underlying numbers, as per TruMedia via StatsPerform, say that xG is down year-over-year, as is stuff like xGSeq and other more field position-based measures of attacking output.

At the same time, the way teams play hasn’t changed much: the number of passes per sequence and time per passing sequence are the exact same now as they were last year, and roughly the same number of long balls and switches are being hit.

So hooray for defenses, I guess. But man, I want to see more goals.

Ok, let’s dig in on the games:

FC Cincinnati vs. Philadelphia Union

FC Cincinnati are in first place in the Eastern Conference, but head coach Pat Noonan isn’t particularly happy with how his team’s been playing, going so far as to apologize on MLS 360 (after a win, no less) this past weekend.

The big issue is that while they’ve been great defensively, they haven’t been super clean playing out of the back (and Noonan wants them to play out of the back and build possession). They’ve lost possession 236 times from the defensive third (anything from getting stripped to an inaccurate long ball to a pass that results in a lost 50/50) through six games, which is 10th-worst in the league.

It’s not a disaster or anything, but it’s not as clean as it needs to be. And against a Philly side that feels like they’re one bad touch from a transition goal, well…

D.C. United vs. Columbus Crew

D.C. United are dominant in the air, both defensively (Steve Birnbaum in particular) and in attack (Christian Benteke is a mountain). It adds up to them having the best aerial duel percentage in the league at 62.3%.

Of course, that might not matter much against a Columbus side that absolutely shredded them by keeping the ball on the ground when they met earlier this year.

LAFC vs. Austin FC

Austin have already dropped five points on goals scored in the final 15 minutes of matches this season.

Their -0.2 expected goals differential in the final 15 minutes of matches is, as expected, pretty bad, clocking in at 19th in the league.

LAFC’s xG differential over the final 15 minutes? +1.91, which is the best in the league.

Inter Miami CF vs. FC Dallas

Dallas have gone six straight without a shutout to open the season, which continues their run at the end of last year, which finished with six straight without a clean sheet (including the Audi MLS Cup Playoffs).

That could be the tonic a thus-far-pretty-punchless Miami attack needs.

New England Revolution vs. CF Montréal

Gustavo Bou, who’s always had a “shoot on sight!” approach to playing as a forward, is working harder to find better chances this year. The sample size is small, but he’s generating 0.14 xG per shot, as opposed to last year’s 0.10.

I’m looking forward to seeing how Bou and Dylan Borrero, who’s also getting better shots this season, build chemistry in New England’s 4-4-2 diamond going against a wounded Montréal side.

New York Red Bulls vs. San Jose Earthquakes

Cristian Espinoza is the league’s leading chance creator, as per Opta, with 21 through six games. The Quakes are very good at getting him into space on the right, but I don’t think their runs in the box (beyond Jeremy Ebobisse doing really good center forward stuff) are quite there yet.

They’ll need to be against an RBNY side that gives you very few opportunities in the attacking third.

New York City FC vs. Atlanta United

Santiago Rodríguez came back for Matchday 2 and has, as expected, inherited the No. 10 role from the great Maxi Moralez for NYCFC. But he’s not putting up Maxi-style numbers in terms of creativity just yet, registering only eight key passes (pass leading to a shot) and an xA of 0.97 through five games.

NYCFC’s attack overall is a work in progress, and they’ve had their best success this year by simply pressing teams into mistakes. Atlanta haven’t been prone to that when they’ve had their first-choice XI available.

Chicago Fire FC vs. Minnesota United FC

Minnesota have compensated for the loss of Emanuel Reynoso by dropping numbers behind the ball and attacking into space. The trade-off is obviously working thus far – they’re unbeaten (3W-0L-2D) despite conceding 15.4 shots per match, which is third-most in the league.

Taking some of those shots this week will be Chicago’s Kei Kamara, who’s scored four goals in his six career appearances against the Loons.

Houston Dynamo FC vs. LA Galaxy

We all saw it last week: The Galaxy absolutely battered the Sounders in the second half after switching to a 3-5-2. Sometimes single-game xG can tell lies, but in this case it’s telling the truth:

LA-SEA Doyle column

It feels like the time has come for Greg Vanney to give up the ghost on that 4-3-3 he wants to run and make the formation switch (plus with Chicharito likely back in some capacity). It makes a lot of sense against a Houston team whose overall approach this year has been somewhat Sounders-like, with Héctor Herrera in the João Paulo role.

Sporting Kansas City vs. Colorado Rapids

Not much has gone right for the Colorado Rapids through six games, but one thing they can rely upon is restarts, where they’re still among the league’s best at generating chances (16 so far, which has them fifth in MLS).

The issue is they’re not finishing those chances. They’ve scored zero set-piece goals so far, and it’s not like they make up for it from open play, where they’ve managed just two tallies all year long.

They’re facing a Sporting KC side that have also managed just two goals all year. MLS being MLS, I’m sure this game will end 5-4.

Nashville SC vs. Toronto FC

Toronto FC just don’t look like a Bob Bradley team yet. They’re in the middle of the pack in time spent on the ball, average number of passes per sequence and even total touches. And there’s been minimal week-to-week improvement.

Trying to use the ball to impose your game on a team as lethal on the counter as Nashville is dangerous, even in the best of times. And these are not the best of times for the Reds despite the fact they’re five unbeaten.

Real Salt Lake vs. Charlotte FC

Spending so much time trailing has forced RSL to come upfield, try to win the ball back and force the issue – goals change games, right?

Well, the problem is they’re a disaster when they try to win the ball back because they’re so ineffective at it (winning possession in the attacking third just 16 times in five games), and even more so because when they overextend through their midfield, they’re so easily picked apart.

Charlotte are nobody’s idea of a contender, but we’ve seen them string some nice sequences together over the past few weeks against disorganized teams.

Seattle Sounders FC vs. St. Louis CITY SC

It’s a matchup of almost polar opposites as Seattle are second in number of passes per sequence and third in total time per passing sequence, while St. Louis are 26th and 25th in both those categories, respectively.

I think the big question here is whether Brian Schmetzer will have his guys try to possess through CITY SC's press (which I’m guessing will be the mid-block press we saw them spring on RSL rather than the high press they’ve used more often), as they’ve tried to do all season, or dial it back a bit and invite the guests to have a little bit more of the ball and come upfield.

Also, don’t be surprised if Jordan Morris gets another start at center forward even with Raúl Ruidíaz fit and available. Any pressing team leaves itself open on the counter a few times per game – even against dominant possession teams – and Morris is uncatchable in that situation.

Vancouver Whitecaps FC vs. Portland Timbers

Only four players have ever scored in each of their first four MLS matches, and the most recent Player of the Matchday presented by Continental Tire, Vancouver’s Simon Becher, is trying to become the fifth.

Becher and fellow center forward Brian White were really good together, and while neither’s a monster, both are good in the air. And they'll be facing a Portland team that’s near the bottom of the league, winning just 45.1% of their aerial duels.

With Julian Gressel out there providing service from set pieces or out wide, I have an idea of the type of goal we’ll see at least once…

Matthew Doyle -
@MattDoyle76
Armchair Analyst: Matt Doyle

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