Armchair Analyst: Matt Doyle

Thoughts & Numbers: What I'm watching for in MLS Matchday 8

Doyle 4.12.23

Matthew Doyle

Matchday 8! We can start really looking at the underlying numbers after this one and seeing if they match the eye test. But in case you want to jump the gun…

All stats are pulled from TruMedia via StatsPerform unless otherwise noted.

Let’s jump in:

Charlotte FC vs. Colorado Rapids

Charlotte coach Christian Lattanzio might’ve hit on something when he slotted Ben Bender into central midfield last weekend. He’s created seven chances in just 149 minutes this year, which leads all central midfielders on the team – despite playing fewer minutes than guys like Nuno Santos (one chance created in 218 minutes), Ashley Westwood (six in 309) and Brandt Bronico (three in 540).

The Rapids will have to keep an eye on him.

Columbus Crew vs. New England Revolution

The Wilfried Nancy effect is real, and has taken hold quickly in Columbus: The Crew are fourth in the league with 56% possession through seven weeks. And anyone who’s watched this team play knows it’s possession with a purpose.

The Revs are less dogmatic – 49.3% possession – but as we saw last week in their 4-0 win over Montréal when they had 58% possession, they know how to use the ball, too.

CF Montréal vs. D.C. United

One of the big questions heading into the season for Montréal was how they would adjust to Hernan Losada’s system, which is less controlled and more combative than Nancy’s. And the early returns aren’t great.

You can see it in their recoveries. They simply don’t win the ball much, with just 315, which is 28th in the league. As a result they’ve given up 103 shots, which is tied for worst in MLS, and 41 shots on goal, which is second-worst.

Maybe that can cure what’s been ailing D.C. United.

New York Red Bulls vs. Houston Dynamo FC

The Red Bulls are on the other end of that spectrum, having allowed just 51 shots and 14 shots on target, which are both league-leading marks.

Of course, it doesn’t matter if you can’t score and RBNY’s five goals in seven games ain’t great. Gerhard Struber is, for some reason, leaning even harder into “all pressing all the time” and the lack of a Plan B – any sort of patience or patterns with the ball – is glaring.

We’ll see if Houston can capitalize.

New York City FC vs. Nashville SC

NYCFC head coach Nick Cushing finally seems to have scrapped the Talles Magno false 9 experiment, and you can understand why, since NYCFC are down near the bottom of the league in touches in the box per game (just over 19).

That number’s been creeping up over the past few weeks with a real No. 9 in there and Talles back where he belongs on the left wing.

Nashville are only a tick ahead of NYCFC in that department, by the way, and are down more than 10% from last year.

Toronto FC vs. Atlanta United

Toronto, meanwhile, are dead last in that stat. They’ve been able to use the ball to defend decently over the past month, but they’re not creating any real, consistent penetration, and thus the attack has been MIA.

Maybe if Lorenzo Insigne comes back this week that’ll change. Atlanta – likely with veteran Quentin Westberg in for the injured Brad Guzan – are hoping it does not.

Austin FC vs. Vancouver Whitecaps FC

Sebastián Driussi was in the Golden Boot presented by Audi race last year. This year… definitely not.

Here’s his touch map from 2023:

Driussi 2023 touch map

Here’s 2022:

Driussi 2022 touch map

He got on the ball in and around the box all the time last year. It’s just not happening like that for him – or for Austin – this season.

Playing against a Vancouver team that’s likely missing, in Andrés Cubas, their DP d-mid, seems like a potential cure for this particular ill.

Chicago Fire FC vs. Philadelphia Union

Philly aren’t getting deep into the box this year, and it shows in their shot distance. Last year they were fifth-best in the league at 15.8 yards, but they’ve dropped down to 20th at 16.9 yards this season.

If the Fire can keep them out of transition, they’ve got a good shot at keeping a zero.

FC Dallas vs. Real Salt Lake

Nico Estevez is clearly trying out different looks to see if he can make his Dallas side more dynamic. Last week it was a 4-4-2 that played against the ball to a shocking degree – Dallas had only 31.5% possession. That is such a massive departure from everything we’ve seen from him and his team over the past 42 games.

Chances are they won’t be giving RSL that much of the ball this weekend.

Minnesota United FC vs. Orlando City SC

The entire Orlando City attack has struggled, and while it’s not precisely Facu Torres’s fault, I think it’s fair to say they expected more from him in Year 2. He’s just 50th in MLS in expected assists at 0.96, which just isn’t good enough.

That’s not great traveling to play a Minnesota team who haven’t given up much this year.

St. Louis CITY SC vs. FC Cincinnati

St. Louis are still tops in MLS in passes allowed per defensive action, which is a rough measure of pressing intensity. But they’re actually 12th in possessions started in the attacking third, which gives you an idea of where Bradley Carnell is drawing his team’s line of confrontation – much closer to the midfield stripe than to the opposing box.

Cincy, meanwhile, don’t press as often. But they generate a ton of their chances off of their press.

Portland Timbers vs. Seattle Sounders FC

Seattle have become much more methodical in the build-up this year. Their direct speed (meters the ball was advanced per second in possession) of 1.18 is 26th in MLS, and is well below 2022’s number (1.42) and 2021 (1.52). They’re just exerting way more control with the ball.

Portland are at the other end of the spectrum at 1.76 meters/second. When they get it, they hit it long and go.

San Jose Earthquakes vs. Sporting Kansas City

Sporting's attack is just not good right now:

Their inability to turn their possession into clear-cut chances is brutal. And the Quakes have not been as mistake-prone at the back as they used to be.

LA Galaxy vs. LAFC

The Galaxy are getting on the ball a ton and getting into the final third a ton and…

Ok yeah, time for two forwards, right?

Of course, it might not matter against a team as good as LAFC are. American Soccer Analysis’s goals added metric has them as the best team in the league by a pretty significant margin, and, well, it’s pretty safe to say that matches the eye test.

Matthew Doyle -
@MattDoyle76
Armchair Analyst: Matt Doyle

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