It wasn’t always pretty, but Nashville SC’s eight-game season-opening road trip is officially over.
Gary Smith’s team finished with 11 points (3W-3L-2D) from those eight games, which averages out to 1.38 points per game. To put that 1.38 PPG number into context, Nashville are currently tied for 11th (!) in the league in PPG. Playing on the road in MLS is very, very hard, so coming out of this two-month road stretch at that level is impressive.
With 26 games left in their regular season, Nashville have the largest percentage of home games on their schedule (65%) in MLS. Their first home game of the year will come on Sunday, May 1 at the brand new GEODIS Park against the Philadelphia Union (4 pm ET | ESPN, ESPN Deportes).
As Nashville SC transition into the home-heavy remainder of their schedule, it will be extremely important for them to build on their solid first eight games of the year. But how do they do that? What tactical things need to keep happening? And what things need to start happening? Oh, and what about that open Designated Player spot?
Let’s talk about it.
From the beginning of their time in MLS, Nashville quickly developed a reputation for being one of the stingiest defensive teams in the league. Per Second Spectrum, they finished 10th in the league in open-play expected goals (xG) allowed per 90 minutes in 2020, second in 2021, and are currently sixth in the league in that metric this year.
Nashville like to keep things tight defensively – and they’re one of the best teams at denying their opponents quality shooting chances. So far in 2022, only the Union are allowing lower-quality shots than Nashville SC. Smith’s team will let you shoot, but because of where and how they defend, they rarely let teams touch the ball in dangerous areas, let alone shoot from those areas.
Where does Nashville defend? Well, in their own half, mostly. No team in MLS has registered more pressures inside their own half than Nashville SC this season. They’ll absorb attacks, even to the point of allowing teams into their own penalty area: Nashville have conceded the 10th-most penalty entries per 90 minutes in MLS this year with 16.3. Once the ball is in the box, though, Nashville get tight and limit good shots. When you add shots into the equation, Nashville’s numbers flip and they move from allowing the 10th-most penalty entries per 90 to allowing the ninth-fewest penalty entries per 90 that involve a shot.
How does Nashville defend? By keeping numbers in central areas, pressuring the ball like crazy in those spaces, and really forcing the ball out wide. If you want to break through Nashville, you’re probably going to have to use crosses to attack from the outside to the inside. In 2022, Nashville have forced their opponents into attempting 13.2 open-play crosses per 90 minutes, which is the fourth most in MLS. When you look at their field control map, it’s easy to see how congested Nashville make things:
If we’re nitpicking, Nashville aren’t perfect defensively. Despite their defensive foundation, they’ve allowed a few too many chances while organized this year. But still, the recipe is churning out some excellent defensive performances.
Nashville’s defensive foundation is excellent…in open play. Their set-piece defending is an entirely different story. Simply put, Nashville have been one of the worst teams at defending set pieces in MLS this season. They were poor on defensive restarts last season, but 2022 has been even worse. In 2022, Nashville are tied for the most goals allowed from set pieces, are third in goals allowed per restart, and are 10th in xG allowed per restart.
It’s a weird thing for a team that plays with three tall center backs and a bunch of veterans to struggle with, but they are certainly struggling with it. They’ve allowed too many chances and too many goals on set pieces this season – and not just in the first phase, but in the second and third phases too. With improved set-piece defending, Nashville’s 11-point road trip may have been a 14-point or a 17-point road trip.
Outside of cleaning up their set-piece defending, which is apparently much easier said than done, Nashville could stand to infuse a bit more attacking production into their team. Nashville won’t turn into a possession-heavy team any time soon, but there is room for them to improve their chance creation in the moments when they do have the ball. So far this year, Nashville rank 17th in open-play xG per 90 minutes and 25th in shots per game. Their shot quality is good, but they’re not getting enough shots off in the first place and they’re not dangerous enough in transition.
Nashville are one of the teams in MLS this year that acts like a transition team, but doesn’t totally play or produce like one. They average the third-lowest possession percentage in the league, but they’re all the way down in 21st when it comes to xG created against transitioning defenses. Instead of really putting the pedal to the metal, Nashville pass the ball backward in transition more than all but three teams in the league.
With four home games in May – five if you count their US Open Cup game against Atlanta United – Smith should focus on helping his team become more decisive and aggressive in their attacking play.
While we’re on the improvement train, Hany Mukhtar needs more touches too. Nashville’s primary playmaker averages 42 touches per 90, which puts him in the 29th percentile among the league’s primary playmakers. There’s some subjectivity with the term “primary playmakers”, so to be clear, I manually created a list with each team’s No. 10 or star winger. From that list, it’s pretty clear that Mukhtar isn’t involved enough.
Mukhtar isn’t touching the ball as often as he should, but he’s still touching it more than Ake Loba, the other Designated Player on Nashville’s roster. With Loba functioning as more of a victory cigar than a DP, adding a third DP before the Primary Transfer Window ends on May 4 or, more likely, after the Secondary Transfer Window opens on July 7 could be extremely beneficial.
To my eye, there is one pretty clear area that Nashville could stand to upgrade: forward. A lot of Nashville’s issues in set-piece defense and ball progression can be ironed out on the training field and may solve themselves over the next month or two. Getting more goalscoring ability onto Nashville’s roster isn’t something that can be done quite so easily, however.
Nashville need a goalscoring striker or a goal-dangerous winger who can compliment Mukhtar and raise the team’s ceiling. CJ Sapong is a serviceable striker, but he’s more of a floor-setter than a ceiling-raiser. The same goes for Randall Leal in his hybrid central midfield/right-sided attacker role. If Nashville want to use their new stadium and home-heavy schedule to their advantage, injecting one more effective attacker into their starting XI would be a good place to start.
This team’s floor is already higher than most in MLS. Let’s see if their ceiling moves up at all, starting on Sunday against the Union at GEODIS Park.
