Every new season brings fresh – and often irrational – hope. Some clubs think they’ll be even better than they were last year. Others think they’ll climb out of the bottom of their conference.
For many teams, 2023 is playing out just how they dreamed. St. Louis, for example, are thriving in the West. New eras in San Jose and Columbus are on or ahead of schedule. LAFC and Seattle? They’re still chugging along like the juggernauts they are (Dairon Asprilla bicycle kicks notwithstanding). New England are back near the top of the league.
Yet for others, this MLS season has been filled with disappointment. Today, we’re looking at what’s ailing some of the biggest clubs in MLS after the first fifth of the season.
Seven games. Three points. Unhappy fans. Emails from the front office to the club’s supporters. There’s plenty of noise surrounding the LA Galaxy right now, largely because the team is struggling to live up to preseason expectations.
So, what’s going wrong? Well, I’m placing most of their problems into two large buckets:
- Personnel issues
- Defensive issues
Starting on the personnel side, the Galaxy’s roster is extremely unbalanced. They have one of the best central midfield trios in the league with Riqui Puig, Mark Delgado and Gastón Brugman, and their striker group – led by Dejan Joveljic and Chicharito – is elite in MLS. But the wingers? And the backline? That’s where the problems lie for this team.
Sure, the Galaxy can be dangerous with the ball when games are open – they’re sixth in MLS in xG per game, according to American Soccer Analysis (ASA). But they’re not a good team when it comes to creating chances at even scorelines (read: when opposing teams are more compact and cautious). Per ASA, the Galaxy are 14th in MLS in xG when the score is tied. Sure, Tyler Boyd could hit a rocket from outside the box every now and then, but LA’s wingers aren’t consistently goal dangerous. None of their three primary wingers – Efraín Álvarez, Boyd, or Memo Rodríguez – have positive goals added values this season according to ASA.
That’s a taste of the personnel bucket. Defensively, the LA Galaxy are just… poor. Per ASA, they’re 23rd in MLS in xG allowed per game. USMNT center back prospect Jalen Neal and new U22 Initiative fullbacks Lucas Calegari and Julián Aude have promise, but they’re young and will have growing pains. The veterans aren't inspiring a ton of confidence either.
Even if the Galaxy go out and make a splash signing before the Primary Transfer Window closes on April 24 (and their summer transfer limitations kick in), they’re still going to have to sort out their issues against the ball.
Austin fans really aren’t going to like this, but here goes: regression was coming. It was always coming.
Last year was great for Josh Wolff and company. Going from second-to-last in the West in your expansion season (2021) to second in the West in your second campaign (2022) is wildly impressive. But they overperformed basically all of their underlying metrics (including xG and expected points) at an all-time level.
According to ASA, Austin FC’s goal differential was 22.06 goals better than their expected goal differential last year. Let that sink in. That number is the fourth-highest since the 2013 MLS season. If you dip your toes into statistics and take a peek at the underlying numbers every now and then, you’ll know that when a team gets really, really hot, they usually come back down to earth. That's exactly what we’re seeing with Austin this year. They’re proving the regression rule, rather than proving they’re the exception to it.
So far in 2023, Wolff’s team is sitting in 10th in the West with eight points through seven games. They’re right around the bottom third in MLS for both xG and xG allowed.
Austin have struggled with injuries along their backline and their striker situation doesn’t actually appear to have taken a step forward, even with the signing of Gyasi Zardes in the offseason. Diego Fagúndez has taken a giant step back (going from 0.23 xA per 96 minutes to 0.04 per 96 minutes), which has messed with Sebastián Driussi’s productivity. Driussi’s xG per 96 is down from 0.44 last year to 0.22 this year.
Austin have talent, there’s no doubt about it. But last year is looking more and more like a mirage rather than an indicator of future success.
Before we get into this section, I want to be clear: the most important thing going on with the New York Red Bulls right now isn’t their on-field play. It’s sorting out what change occurs inside the club in the aftermath of Dante Vanzeir’s usage of a racial slur (and ensuing suspension/fine). Taking real, meaningful steps to ensure progress is a must. Full stop.
On the field, the Red Bulls are 12th in the East with eight points through eight games.
They’ve been excellent defensively, allowing the second-lowest xG per game in all of MLS (0.82, per ASA), which puts them just behind LAFC. They press more than any team in MLS, outside of St. Louis, based on Opta’s passes per defensive action (PPDA) metric. They’re also creating shots from their defensive pressing: per Opta, RBNY have 16 shots after forcing turnovers high up the field this year, which is second in MLS.
I know what you’re thinking. Uh, Joe, it seems like you’re just telling us a bunch of good stuff about how good the Red Bulls’ press is and how they’re actually creating shots from the press, which has been a problem in the past but doesn’t seem to be a problem anymore. Is this team actually good? Do “red bulls” really exist in the wild? What makes them red? What is going on?
I’m not qualified to answer those last few questions, but I’ll answer the first one: yes, I think this Red Bulls team is good. Or, at least they’re much better than 12th in the East. They have the fourth-best xGD in all of MLS, according to ASA, and elite defending can take you far in this league.
What I will say, though, is that RBNY aren’t true trophy contenders right now. Their attack is league-average, their personnel is in flux (it’s flown under the radar that 2022 leading scorer Lewis Morgan hasn’t played in a month due to a hip injury), and Luquinhas has basically never looked like a DP-level attacker. But they’re an Audi MLS Cup Playoffs team, you can bet on that.
Expectations were high for Toronto FC coming into 2023. A full season of Lorenzo Insigne and Federico Bernardeschi starting on the wings of Bob Bradley’s 4-3-3 formation? Sign me up. This team was supposed to head towards 60 points after a disastrous 2022 season saw them finish with just 34 points.
Unfortunately, things haven’t gone to plan for Toronto.
They’re sitting in ninth in the East with nine points through eight games (and have a league-leading six draws). That’s a decent start to 2023, but certainly not one to write to your local Tim Horton’s about. Insigne’s groin injury has messed with things, to be sure. Through the first eight weeks of the season, the Italian international has started only once and played just 48 total minutes. With Insigne out, and with such a huge portion of their roster mechanisms dedicated to top-end talent, Toronto’s lack of depth has made itself known.
Jonathan Osorio as the backup left winger? Not great. Question marks all the way down the striker depth chart? Also not great. Those issues have bled into Toronto’s attacking numbers: they’re 17th in MLS in xG per game.
Still, despite some early-season disappointment, Toronto’s floor is high – higher than most teams in MLS. Their defensive numbers are good with goalkeeper Sean Johnson and center backs Matt Hedges and Sigurd Rosted coming into the squad. So far this year, Toronto are fifth in MLS in xG allowed per game, which helps boost their xGD to the 10th-best number in MLS, per ASA.
To reach their expectations for the season and surge up the Eastern Conference standings, Toronto’s attack must improve. For that to happen, Insigne is going to have to stay healthy. If he can’t, well, we’re looking at a mid-table team out East.
