Daily Kickoff - Web Story - 11.7.24
What you need to know

RBNY’s Morgan named 2024 MLS Comeback Player of the Year

After overcoming multiple injuries in 2023, New York Red Bulls midfielder Lewis Morgan has been named the 2024 MLS Comeback Player of the Year. Morgan, who underwent hip surgery in September 2023, was given an 80-85% chance of returning to play and only a 20-25% chance of returning to peak performance. Upon recovering for 2024, the Scottish international led RBNY in goals (13) and was second in assists (7) through 29 matches.

Houston announce end-of-year roster moves

Houston Dynamo FC have declined Héctor Herrera’s 2025 contract option, ending an era. The Mexican star joined Houston midway through the 2022 season after playing for LaLiga side Atlético Madrid. He tallied 5g/21a in 62 matches, carrying the Dynamo's midfield and helping them win the 2023 US Open Cup title. With this decision, Houston open a Designated Player spot and move on from their captain.

The higher seeds are (probably) going to advance

We’ve talked a lot about upsets this week. Our MO at The Daily Kickoff is to value chaos over everything else. That’s why we have millions (billions?) of readers every day. But we should take a moment and consider that we may wake up Sunday morning without a single lower seed advancing to the Conference Semifinals.

Quite simply, the main reason is higher seeds have home-field advantage. That’s first, second and third on the list of reasons to pick a team to win in MLS. There are plenty of other reasons to believe that chalk will be the story at the end of the weekend, though.

The first goal matters in every game, but it seems to matter the most when it comes to LAFC. If they go up, there’s a strong chance you aren’t getting back in the game and things are about to get worse for you. Their ability to sit deep and counter at speed is a nightmare to deal with when you’re chasing a game. If Vancouver go down early, that might just be it. In LAFC’s two wins over the Whitecaps in October, they scored in the first and 30th minutes.

That being said, it doesn’t seem like they’ll get that opener from Olivier Giroud right now. Giroud is still looking for his first MLS goal. It will have to be Denis Bouanga or Mateusz Bogusz leading the way.

Yet there are far worse people to rely on. Bouanga didn’t make the same Landon Donovan MLS MVP push he did last year, but still ended up with 20 goals and 11 assists. He actually ended up with four more goal contributions than in his stellar 2023 season. Meanwhile, Bogusz put up 15 goals and seven assists in a breakout year. And even if Vancouver can slow those two down, they still have to deal with Cristian Olivera operating as a wingback. Olivera only scored six times this year, but he’s still goal-dangerous. He sealed LAFC’s 2-1 victory in Game 1.

That’s a ton of firepower for Vancouver to deal with. It might be too much to handle in the end. Especially if LAFC get up early again.

Game 1 and Game 2 of this series took on opposite shapes. Game 1 at TQL Stadium saw Cincy roll to a 1-0 win that could have been much, much worse if they capitalized on the 3.9 xG worth of chances they piled up. Game 2 at Citi Field saw NYCFC find the net three times on 3.5 xG worth of chances. Whoever has been at home has been creating constant chances.

Now it’s back to Cincinnati. That’s enough to give Cincy a huge edge, but the Garys are going to have to figure out what exactly went wrong for them in New York or they risk letting this slip away from them. In particular, Alonso Martínez and Santiago Rodríguez were torching Cincy’s back line. It probably helped that Maxi Moralez returned to the starting lineup to help dictate things in possession. If NYCFC stick with Moralez over Andrés Perea in midfield – and they should – Cincy will have to work a little harder to find a solution defensively.

Still, it’s Lucho Acosta on his home turf. And it’s not like Cincy struggled to find chances in New York. If they can figure out how to slow NYCFC down even a little, they should be fine.

Right now, there are no worries for this side defensively. Orlando haven’t allowed a goal in either of their two games against Charlotte. The only real concern is whether or not they can find the net. Or, ya know, even get off a shot.

In their 0-0 draw at Charlotte in Game 2, Orlando took just three shots. They only generated 0.4 xG worth of chances with the same starting XI they ran out in Game 1. Was that a big home crowd powering Charlotte to put in a little extra effort on an off night for Orlando? Or did the Crown figure the Lions out?

We should find out quickly in Game 3. But even if it devolves into another slog towards 0-0, Orlando haven’t been in much danger defensively this series. If that stays true on Saturday, they’ll probably be just fine. It might come down to whoever can score the game’s lone goal. In that situation, Orlando have the edge.

Lionel Messi. I’m not sure what more you need to be convinced they have a decent shot at holding off Atlanta.

The Reading Rainbow
Full Time

Good luck out there. Get awards from the right people.